There are two groups of contestants in the Final 24 -- Those Who Can't Win The Whole Thing, and Those Who Can. As long as they get rid of the first group before starting to pick at the second, it's not worth stressing over the order of elimination. In other words, I don't care if Robbie Carrico goes before Jason Yeager, as long as they both are gone before Michael Johns is at risk. Similarly, with the ladies, as long as women like Asia'h Epperson and Brooke White are in it for a while, Kady Malloy and Ramielle Malubay can fight it out for 11th place.The theory extends on microlevels throughout the competition -- the order of elimination last season between Megan Joy Corkrey, Michael Sarver and Scott MacIntyre didn't matter as long as they wall went before the final 4-5 singers, and it didn't matter whether Allison Iraheta or Danny Gokey went #3 vs #4, so long as Kris Allen and Adam Lambert were the final two.
It's time for Theory #2, which I want to crystallize so much that I'll blockquote it:
Whoever you think is the best singer during the round of 24, or who seems most fully-formed as an artist will not win American Idol. The winner of American Idol will be the singer who demonstrates the most development as an artist during the competition, and over whom the audience can claim more ownership and from whom they will derive more satisfaction as the competition progresses.This theory tracks the last three seasons of American Idol well -- Jordin Sparks over Blake Lewis and Melinda Doolittle, David Cook over David Archuleta and certainly Kris Allen over Adam Lambert. In all three seasons post-Hicks/McPhee on Idol, in which original rearrangements and musicianship have been stressed, it has transitioned from being a Best Singer competition to a Best Artist competition, and within that competition fans will gravitate towards the best narrative. Each of the last three winners showed improvement as artists as the competition progressed, surpassing folks like Melinda Doolittle, Michael Johns, Matt Giraud and Danny Gokey who basically remained at their same (and in some cases, arguably higher) levels of professionalism and talent at which they entered the competition.
Bottom line: don't look at this week's best performances for your Next American Idol. Look instead towards the ones who are competent, somewhat surprising and vaguely interesting, and about whom you may know a little less than others. In other words, no matter how much you think you like him, that you know so much about him already means Andrew Garcia will not become The Next American Idol, because there's no place to go from the top.
[One caveat, however, and that's The Variable: Ellen DeGeneres. We don't know what her preferences are going to be among the singers, and her critiques (and praise) may subtly swing the course of this series just as much as Simon's do, as folks gradually (and perhaps subconsciously) incorporate her views along the way as their own. So if she starts focusing on the technical quality of the singing, all bets are off.]
Kim and I will be around shortly after 10pm with our roundup of tonight's performances.
I don't know how much I'd say any of the last three winners "grew," necessarily. Was there a significant difference between the quality and kind of Jordin Sparks's performances in the first finals episode and the last? David Cook figured out his own gimmick in the semi-finals and rode that all the way to the top, not so much growing as surpassing a favorite who began to choke, early and often. I agree that Kris got better as last season went along (or, at least, got more confident in using his musicianship), but I would ascribe his win as much to anti-Lambert sentiment as to Kris' growth curve.
ReplyDeleteI still think Jordin really took off with Broken Wing and You'll Never Walk Alone halfway through the season; before then, she wasn't seen as a threat to Blake and Melinda -- at least not as far as I recall. Cook figured out his gimmick early (round of 16), but didn't actually employ it that much over the course of the competition, and then got lucky with Michael Johns' early ouster.
ReplyDeleteSimon keeps talking about how this will be a year for the ladies, but the grumpy feminist in me worries that if Idol is indeed a search for the Best Artist instead of the Best Singer, the viewership will never embrace a lady American Idol. I didn't think Jordin won over Blake because she showed more growth as an artist, but because he didn't show enough growth and she fit the old mold of the beautiful, big-voiced Lady Idol. And then, as you argue, Idol became more and more about artisanship, we ended up with two dudes in the top two, two years in a row. Basically, as the criteria for advancement becomes less superficial, I think it will disfavor the lady contestants because I worry the voters will assign more depth to the male contestants on the very basis of their maleness.
ReplyDeleteMy problem with your first theory is that last year at this time, I would have labeled Kris Allen one of the People Who Can Not Win. And I don't think I was alone in that opinion. It will be interesting if your second theory holds true because that certainly wasn't the case in the early seasons. Carrie and Fantasia were favorites from the get-go, as was Taylor for some strange reason. And if Theory 2 had applied to Season 2, Clay certainly would have beaten Ruben.
ReplyDeleteWe'll also see if the last two seasons has brought us a third theory - that the winner must be able to redo songs in his or her own image (or at least be able to recreate an obscure cover of a hit song that the judges are unfamiliar with and thus can attribute the new version to the contestant's ingenuity). David Cook certainly doesn't win without his performance of Billie Jean and his unusual take on Always Be My Baby, and Kris' version of that Kanye West song last year probably put him over the top. Voters never demanded that back in the Kelly-Ruben-Fantasia-Carrie-Taylor years.
Oh, this is absolutely a theory for later seasons only, after they raised the age limits, allowed instruments and realized they never wanted another Hicks/McPhee final.
ReplyDeleteYour third theory fits within mine -- that in turning this from a singing competition into a "best next artist" competition, adapting/rearranging skills matter.
There's certainly some validity to the theory. People who don't grow get boring; people who do grow wind up surprising you, which means you tend to give them more credit than they deserve just because they've exceeded your expectations. And Americans do love the underdog. But I would also argue that as good as she was, Melinda never connected with the audience and would have had a tough time winning whether anyone else "grew" or not; David Archuleta was a one-trick pony and that trick became tiresome; and Kris won not so much because he grew, but because Adam was so polarizing that there was a significant enough bloc of "not-Adam" votes.
ReplyDeleteBut I think the one point that's inarguable is that the person who has won the last three years is not the person you would have expected at the beginning of the competition -- whereas, in previous years, it always was. So it will be interesting to see which dynamic holds.
Looking back, it's something of a small miracle that the Hicks/McPhee season didn't kill Idol, though interestingly, it's arguably the most successful overall group of finalists--Daughtry, Yamin, Pickler, and Covington have all had Top 20 hits (Pickler and Covington on the country charts) subsequent to the season, as has McPhee, and Ace Young is doing theatre.
ReplyDeleteI think the last couple seasons have shown how helpful it is to have a big tent sort of appeal to win, at least in comparison to your fellow finalist. Many people who liked Archie/Lambert liked them from the beginning for distinct reasons, but other voters were so turned off for other very clear reasons that it meant their voting block wasn't really able to grow over the final few weeks. (This also probably affected Gokey's chances.) Allen didn't win because of his own faithful voters as much as he did because he was more appealing than Glambert to those voters that had lost their favorites throughout the competition and wanted someone to vote for, same with Cook.
ReplyDeleteI think Allen also gained an advantage because a lot of people (Gokey fans, particularly) were voting against Lambert. Again, the same with Cook, as more and more voters turned on the Cold, Dead Eyes and the fact the judges refused to criticize Archie, even when he'd do something as terrible as forgetting the lyrics. This is just in addition to all of the stuff Adam mentioned above, as I think the ability to rearrange has become more and more important (Even with the anti-Lambert backlash, I don't think Allen was winning without "Heartless") .
There's only one thing which will kill Idol, and that's when Simon Cowell leaves. Which he will. Season 10 in 2011 will be Idol's last hurrah.
ReplyDeleteHow important will the contestants' ability to fit into "current" style modes be? My beef with Idol has always been its insistence on forcing the singers to perform themed content from non-current genres, then criticising them for not sounding "current."
ReplyDeleteThis can result in vote-getting performances from singers who can deliver old-school style, arguably extending their shelf life (and sometimes resulting in premature ousting of more deserving singers [see Hicks, Taylor]).
i've heard Simon talking about how he wants to find the next Taylor Swift. Will this season therefore concentrate less on providing yet another opportunity for a craptastic rendition of "Black Velvet"? Will they finally build relevance into the show structure and MAKE them sing more recent material/in more marketable styles? If they see marketability in one or more of these kids, will they choose to manipulate the themes to their advantage?
Or are these retread themes merely the vehicle by which the unoriginal are weeded out, and the clever rearrangers referred to above get to rise to the top?
As you point out, Point 2 only works in the last three seasons, as clear, demonstrable and overwhelming early favorites dominated seasons two through five. Season Six just happened to be a weird season, in which there was no demonstrable favorite at any point other than Melinda Doolittle, even though NOBODY expected Melinda to actually win. So that season got overrun by Sanjaya-Mania for its first half and then got basically lost in the shuffle by the end. So yes, Jordin won because she saw the most growth, but she also won because no other contestant plausible COULD have won, something that was evident probably as early at the Top 10. Like Diana DeGarmo, Blake Lewis was one of those finalists who just COULDN'T win.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the last two years, I agree you can say that "The Person You Think Is Going To Win Won't Win," but you can absolutely say "The Person You Think Is Going to Win Is Probably Going to Finish Second or Third," whether that's Archuleta or Lambert/Gokey.
And I remain confused on when the Tiers get installed. After one performance last either of the last two years, you never would have put Cook or Kris Allen in that upper tier, but with Cook, if you'd moved him up there after Round of 16, by that point, he was utterly a co-favorite with Archuleta, albeit 1a to Archuleta's 1.
Anyway, though, "American Idol" is an odd beast. That *may* be why we still bother watching it...
-Daniel
I think that tiers will be set up after the semis. Last year, we didn't have enough information -- just 1-2 performances -- to do so when we were down to 13. One Kris Allen song didn't tell us anything. Nor did the next one. Or the next one.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that there's always a fine line -- or, perhaps, the problem is that the judges/producers change their tune depending on their desired outcome -- between when Simon (or another judge) criticizes a contestant for sounding "old" and when he praises one for having "an old soul."
ReplyDelete"M<span>y problem with your first theory is that last year at this time, I would have labeled Kris Allen one of the People Who Can Not Win"</span>
ReplyDeleteTrue - but last year was a freaky semi-final which gave Kris only one chance to sing. This year, each finalist will have sung three songs (which is normal). So, if you picture where Kris was after three live performances ("To Make You Feel My Love") you are at the point where Simon told him that for the first time he was convinced that Kris could do really well in the competition.
Ha! Black Velvet it was! Good call.
ReplyDelete