REALER THAN REAL: Writes the NYT's Bill Carter today: " In the current television season, 12 of the top 20 shows are reality shows, and many of the others are either about to close down for good, like 'Friends,' or are part of multipart crime franchises, like NBC's 'Law and Order' and CBS's 'C.S.I.' "

What's the answer for scripted television? Realize what it is that reality tv does well -- it's the sense of unpredictability and authenticity you get from not using actors, but it's also that there is a clear structure in place: beginning, rich creamy middle and ending. People like knowing that you're going somewhere, and their interest is heightened by the hopes for a dramatically satisfying conclusion.

That's what you get at the end of every reality tv season, good or bad: an ending. Whether it's wrapped up to your satisfaction (The Apprentice) or not (every season of Average Joe), it's over, and you can be disappointed, but you also knew it was going to end in a few months (at most) and decided it was worth waiting for, worth following the road until the destination. And so you watched, and let's remember, the Nielsens and advertisers care about levels of viewership, not levels of happiness.

It's also what you get at the end of every Law & Order episode. After an hour, it's over. No loose threads. You know who did it, and by and large, justice was served. There's something to be said for having that whole arc contained within every episode.

It's a bad time to be writing for television -- unless, of course, you've got an in with Dick Wolf, and you think he's going to put you on staff real soon, because his right-hand man really likes your stuff . . .

I FEEL THE EARTH MOVE: The first chapter of Jennifer Weiner's next novel, Little Earthquakes (in stores this September), is now online. Enjoy.

APROPOS OF NOTHING: Answer me this, because I've gone both ways on the subject.

When you've got a phone with Caller ID, do you pick up the phone and acknowledge who's calling you before that person introduces him/herself, or do you act like you don't know? And does it matter whether you're doing this from a work phone or your personal phone?

Just wondering. Is all.

STILL TO COME -- ROBERT KLEIN AND ARSENIO HALL: Our good friend Alex Gordon at A List a Day is doing a great job charting Comedy Central's 100 Greatest Standups of All Time list.

Check it out. Join the discussion in the comments there.

THIS ONE, JON PETER LEWIS CAN WIN: Fake Idol is coming.

BURNETT, VOL. II: One more week of Pagonging, then the real game begins. Give Mariano credit -- only Richard Hatch and Rob Cesternino have ever played the game this well before. (Although, arguably, if you don't win the game, you can't have played it well enough. Discuss.)

FYI: For those curious about what I'm doing all day, take a look at the Hoeffel Blog, which is part of my responsibilities, and enjoy this flash ad, which one of my colleagues put together. We're having fun.