A List Of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago

OSCAR ANTI-PREDICTIONS: I suppose I should make some. But with the exception of Best Documentary Feature, I will make no affirmative predictions, only negative ones.

In other words, I guaran-damn-tee that not one of the following nominees will win tomorrow night. Even though, mathematically, I've got about a 0.5% chance of actually being right. Here goes:

Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. If a sci-fi/fantasy movie is ever winning this award, it's the Matrix films next year, not this. This movie has had as much Oscar buzz as Jackass (which, of course, should've been nominated in Best Documentary).

Best Directing: Stephen Daldry, The Hours. Marty could win, Rob Marshall could get swept in on the Chicago wave, Almodovar could win in a We've Always Loved You fluke and Polanski . . . well, even though the Academy hasn't forgiven Leni Riefenstahl yet, he's still got more of a chance than Daldry does.

Best Actor: Nicolas Cage, Adaptation. If Jeremy Irons can't even get nominated for playing twins in Dead Ringers, no way the star of Valley Girl picks up his second Oscar tomorrow. They're still regretting giving an Oscar to someone who went on to make Gone In 60 Seconds and Con Air.

Best Actress: Diane Lane, Unfaithful. If any of the stars of The Outsiders is going to win the award, it's Estevez or Cruise first. Maybe Rob Lowe. Also, no actress has ever won an Oscar for a film that required sleeping with Richard Gere.

Best Supporting Actor: John C. Reilly, Chicago. If "hard working, underappreciated" is going to win this year, it's Chris Cooper, not Chest Rockwell.

Best Supporting Actress: Queen Latifah, Chicago. This may be the toughest one of all, but if someone from Chicago's winning, it's Mrs. Douglas. But any of the five could win this one. Oscar pools get decided here.

Best Adapted Screenplay: About A Boy. Tthe Weitz brothers directed American Pie and wrote Nutty Professor 2. They're just not winning an Oscar. Yet.

Best Original Screenplay: Far From Heaven. Yes, I see even Greek Wedding as more likely. If the Academy liked FFH that much, then it'd have been nominated in Best Picture and Best Director. So it's not winning this.

Best Animated Feature: Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron. Because no one liked it, and because if I blindfolded you, you'd guess the title wrong. "Stallion: Spirit of the Stallion?"

Best Music (Score): Frida. Because nominee Elliot Goldenthal is not "John Williams" or "Philip Glass" or "Elmer Bernstein". Sorry.

Best Music (Song): "Burn It Blue", Frida. A song you've never heard of can't win, and it's up against Em, Bono and Simon. Forget it.

Best Art Direction: Road to Perdition. Because Road's only winning one Oscar, and that's for the late Conrad L. Hall for best cinematography. "Art Direction" covers the general "look and feel" of a movie, but it's often a costume-ish award -- witness recent winners like Moulin Rouge!, Restoration or The Madness of King George. So pick the one with the least funky costumes, and that's Tom Hanks in suits.

Best Cinematography: The Pianist. Conrad L. Hall's picking up his third Oscar for Perdition, albeit while dead. It's a lock. So what won't win? Well, none of my friends left The Pianist saying, "Wow, the sure Ghetto looked great!", so I'll pick on this one.

Best Costume Design: The Pianist. "And man, those SS people sure dressed nice!" Not.

Best Foreign Language Film: Hero. Except for Crouching/Hidden, has gone to a European film every year since 1986. The Chinese film can't win.

Best Documentary Feature: Winged Migration. Because if it's not the Holocaust movie, it's the spelling movie. It ain't the bird movie. Trust me.

Best Documentary Short: Why Can't We Be A Family Again? Competing against Rosa Parks, who'll be in attendance, and a 9/11 movie? Has as much chance winning as Horatio Sanz getting that Best Supporting nod next year for Boat Trip.

Best Editing: The Pianist. In recent years, "fast cutting" has become the standard for winning this category -- Black Hawk Down, Traffic, The Matrix and Saving Private Ryan won the last four. Pianist was anything but.

Best Makeup: The Time Machine Because Frida is the only other nominee, and I'll go with the better film. 50/50 here.

Best Animated Short: Mt. Head. Want to impress your friends by calling another obscure category? "Mike's New Car" features the Monsters, Inc characters. It'll win.

Best Live Action Short: Fait D'Hiver. C'mon -- anyone who's seen these films knows what the class of the competition is. Do I have to draw a map for you?

Best Sound and Best Sound Editing: Road To Perdition. Loud movies win these categories -- Black Hawk Down, Gladiator, etc. So pick the only quiet film.

Best Visual Effects: Spider-Man. Three nominees in the category; Rings won last year, so it'll probably win again. Between Spidey and Anakin, only one movie had Yoda Kicking Ass. That one's got a shot here.

Full Oscar comments after the show airs. If it airs.