WAY TOO EARLY, BUT STILL FUN: Yes, it's not yet July 1, but Dave Poland has already started to prognosticate the Oscars over at Movie City News. Some of his calls are obvious, like saying "The Aviator" (Martin Scorsese's Howard Hughes biopic) is a lock for major nominations. Others are slightly touchy, like his prediction that major nods will go to "Fahrenheit 9/11" if and only if Kerry wins the November election, or listing "The Notebook" as a possible best picture contender.
Personal guess for a sleeper? "Proof" is based on an astoundingly good play, has a damn fine cast (even if Gwyneth Paltrow is way too old to be playing the part of Catherine), and a solid director. With the right push, could get major acting nods. Also, while "De-Lovely" is not a particularly good film, Kline deserves a nomination for almost making the film work just on his own, even in spite of the loathsome and inexplicable "Be A Clown" number. Completely missing from the list is "Garden State," which arrives in theatres today, and which I can see being a contender for acting and writing awards, at least based on early buzz.
Sadly, Poland doesn't talk about what should be one of the more exciting categories this year--animated feature, in which "Shrek 2," "The Polar Express," and "The Incredibles" will all be slugging it out. However, he does suggest that there are possible major nominations in store for this movie if it makes it to theatres in time for consideration, which might be of interest to some readers around these parts. Think Poland and I are off-base? That's what the comments are for.