YOU WILL: Have you ever wanted to go back to those 1993 ads which predicted the future would include faxing from the beach, driving through toll plazas without stopping (by swiping a credit card in your car?), and videoconferencing, all brought to you by AT&T?
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Really pretty close to the mark, all told.
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ReplyDeleteI often refer to these in my professional life in support of the proposition that our predictions about future technologies are almost always overdetermined by our knowledge regarding current technologies. Even when we work hard to think outside the box, we're inclined to assume a lot about today's technologies being extended rather than supplanted (helloooo, Schumpeter).
ReplyDeleteI had a professor freshman year of college who liked to remind us that Moore's Law, when applied broadly, prevents us from making accurate predictions about future technologies, since things move so quickly that anything X years in the future will be determined by advancement Y, Z years from now (where Z is a period of time between now and X). Which is to say you can't accurately predict mobile internet devices when your frame of reference is fax machines.
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