Friday, May 13, 2011

ODDS OF BEING NORMAN MAILER'D OR MAXWELL TAYLOR'D - 500:1: If the mere thought of Paul Simon's eleventh SNL appearance (3 as host, 8th as musical guest; includes one double-duty) this Saturday doesn't excite you enough in and of itself, let's set out some odds to make it interesting:
If he performs ...
Two songs. 3:1  
Three songs. 1:2
During the monologue. 4:1
In a giant turkey suit. 20:1

A song ...
Off the new album, just before Update. 1:5  
Something from the Negotiations and Love Songs compilation. 3:1
A Simon & Garfunkel song: 7:1
A Simon & Garfunkel song not on Greatest Hits. 50:1
"Here Comes The Sun." 20:1
Anything from The Capeman. 100:1
"When Numbers Get Serious." 200:1

With a special appearance by ...

Artie. 10:1
Edie. 20:1
Ladysmith Black Mambazo. 50:1
Olodum. 75:1
The Dixie Hummingbirds. 100:1
Chevy Chase. 200:1
Jerry Douglas. 10:1
That weird wavy hand thing he does. 2:1 (HT: Tosy and Cosh)
Lorne. 6:5 (non-singing), 100:1 (singing)

And also ...
Appears in a skit as himself. 5:1  
Appears in a skit in character. 20:1
Appears in a skit as another celebrity. 25:1
Appears in a skit as Tony Lacey. 200:1
Appears in Laser Cats: 15:1


  1. Anonymous9:29 PM

    I'd pay good money to hear Adios Hermanos . . .

  2. Tosy and Cosh9:29 PM

    Guest is me.

  3. I had meant to add, "Odds that someone will comment to defend The Capeman: 1:1."

  4. J. Bowman9:36 PM

    At those odds, I'll plunk $20 down on four of the five "Appears in" categories, and be treating the w to a nice dinner next week.

  5. I'd give extraordinarily long odds on "he performs a song other than one off the new album that dates from after Graceland."  (I think "You're The One" and "Surprise" are really good albums.)  Best chance there is "Father and Daughter."

  6. Joseph J. Finn10:19 PM

    Can I get odds on a Willie Nelson appearance?

  7. Guest Appearance:  Rayna Ford.  See this (excellent and touching) video for explanation.

  8. Nice.

    Also: odds on (a) bald, (b) hat, (c) return of the rug?

  9. Edie Brickell tagalong / backup vocal?

  10. Dude, I'd think a former rsbb regular would be able to make better book than that. I can make a small fortune just arbitraging the "Two songs" or "Three songs" bets. You really think there's only a 16% chance of him appearing in a sketch as himself? Especially this late in the season, when they're out of ideas?

  11. I was more of a lurker.  Left open the opening for four songs (monologue, two slots, post-Goodbyes.)

  12. Eric J.8:12 AM

    Odds of some variation on the 5-timers' club?

  13. Benner10:02 AM

    Odds he sings a Simon & Garfunkel song, but it's one where Art did lead vocal?:  20:1

    Odds Bill Hader plays Art in a sketch:  50:1

    Carrie Fisher appearance?  250:1

  14. And we have our first answer: What's Up With That?

  15. kd bart11:58 PM

    Is there still time to get money down on a Lindsey Buckingham for special appearance?

  16. Colbert! HAMM!

  17. In an episode that reeked of stone-cold unfunny, that made everything worthwhile. I go so far as to say... that short absolved SNL of years- nay, decades- of hours of my life I will never get back. I loved it so very much.

  18. Anonymous12:23 PM

    It was almost a Daily Show mini-reunion with Carrell there as well!  I was hoping that the Lizard villan was Stewart but, alas, it was not.

  19. Crud.  Guest is me.

  20. Nancy5:10 PM

    I believe the lizard man was Armisen.