THIS TIME I KNOW IT’S FOR REAL. Donna Summer has been nominated this year for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Here is her “Keltner” analysis based upon the so-called “Keltner” list used to evaluate whether a given baseball player belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The “Keltner” list was developed by famous baseball analyst Bill James in his 1985 Bill James Baseball Abstract. Over the years we have adapted the questions on the list so they make more sense for musical artists (look here for our other“Keltner” musical assessments).

This time around I made a few changes to the questions to make them even more meaningful for musical artists. Also, in a few spots I changed the wording of the questions from “rock music” to “pop music” because the Hall is certainly not limited to “rock and roll” music.

1. Was Donna Summer ever regarded as the best artist in pop music? Did anybody, while she was active, ever suggest that Donna Summer was the best artist in pop music?

I think you would have to say no on this, but it’s a much closer call than you might expect. Donna Summer was among the top 2 or 3 pop music stars from 1977 through 1980, a period during which she had ten Top Ten hits, including four #1 hits and a #2.

This is as good a place as any to deal with a recurring yet tiresome question – is “disco” within the category of “rock and roll”? The answer is an emphatic yes. Let me quote rock critic Robert Christgau, as he wrote in 1978:

“Whatever other genre distinctions you want to make (and they're always fuzzy), it's a weird switch to act as if black music (whatever exactly that means) is not rock and roll. If Motown was rock and roll, then so are the O'Jays and Donna Summer; if Linda Ronstadt and Randy Newman are part of the tradition, then so are Natalie Cole and Gil Scott-Heron. Rock and roll is a direct descendant of rhythm and blues, and so are soul, funk, middle-class black pop, ... Philly-derived disco, reggae (less categorically), and jazz fusion and Eurodisco (less categorically still, since both are genuinely interracial styles with disparate forebears).”

Donna Summer is in fact much more than a disco artist. Her work has featured a fusion of disco, R&B, rock, inspirational, electronica, techno, and dance music. For example, her hit “Hot Stuff” is basically straightforward rock and roll.

Donna Summer’s 1979 album “Bad Girls” was #10 on the 1979 Village Voice “Pazz & Jop” Critics Poll, a remarkably high showing considering that at least as of the year before only 12 of the 98 participating critics focused on “black” music and only 2 of the 98 focused their efforts on disco. In 1980, critic Dave Marsh named Summer’s album “The Wanderer” as the second best album of the year behind only “The River” by Bruce Springsteen.

Last but not least, I swear that I once read an interview with Billy Joel in which he described Donna Summer as the best artist in pop music circa 1980, but I cannot find the quotation on the internet.

2. Was Donna Summer ever the best artist in her genre?

Possibly yes. Assuming we view the relevant genre as disco, then there are four other contenders worth considering: Earth Wind & Fire, the Bee Gees, Chic, and KC and the Sunshine Band. Earth Wind & Fire (who have been inducted into the Hall) had less success on the Top 40 than Summer did, but greater critical acclaim.

The Bee Gees had greater commercial success than Summer did (the Bee Gees are in the Hall). It’s a harder question for me to say if the Bee Gees were “better” than Donna Summer. I’d say that they were roughly equal in quality, but I happen to like Donna Summer more than I like the Bee Gees.

Donna Summer had more commercial success and a much longer career than Chic (also nominated this year) or KC and the Sunshine Band. I think Chic was perhaps better at its very peak, but Summer clearly had more “career value.” Summer is considerably more influential than KC and the Sunshine Band.

3. Was Donna Summer ever considered the best at her instrument/role?

No. Summer was certainly a talented vocalist, trained as a powerful gospel singer. I don’t think anyone ever suggested that she was the single most talented vocalist of her time, though.

4. Did Donna Summer have a noticeable influence on a number of other artists?

You betcha. According to David Bowie, her influence was recognized early on:

“One day in Berlin ... Eno came running in and said, 'I have heard the sound of the future.' … he puts on 'I Feel Love', by Donna Summer … He said, 'This is it; look no further. This single is going to change the sound of club music for the next fifteen years.' Which was more or less right.”

Donna Summer appears to have heavily influenced Janet Jackson, Madonna, Mariah Carey, and Beyoncé', among many other artists.

5. How long a career did Donna Summer have? Was she a good enough performer that she could continue to perform regularly after passing her prime?

She has had a very long career. Her first hit was in 1975, the infamous "Love to Love You, Baby." As recently as 1997, she won the Grammy for “Best Dance Recording” for her song “Carry On.” Summer placed a song on the Billboard Hot 100 every single year from 1977's "I Feel Love" to 1984's "There Goes My Baby".

She has been a good enough performer that she continued to perform regularly even after “the last days of disco.” She still continues to record and to perform.

6. Is Donna Summer the very best eligible artist in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. I would say that you’d have to put Madonna ahead of her. But I’d put Donna Summer on the short list of the most worthy contenders.

7. Are most performers with a comparable recording history and influence in the Hall of Fame?

Yes! For example, Earth Wind & Fire (who are in the Hall) had slightly less success on the pop charts than Summer did. I would say that Earth Wind & Fire is perhaps slightly less influential than Summer, but reasonable minds can differ on that topic.

See also #9 below, regarding Summer’s chart success. I have to believe that very few artists with twelve Top 10 hits and eleven gold or platinum albums are not in the Hall.

8. Is Donna Summer the best artist in her genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame (and has not already been admitted)?

Yes. See #3 above.

9. How many songs of Donna Summer hit one or more of the major music charts? How many songs hit #1? How many of her albums went gold or platinum? Did Donna Summer ever win a Grammy award?

Summer has had twenty Top 40 hits. Twelve of those songs hit the Top 10, including four #1 hits, and two #2 smashes. Many of her other songs have hit the dance charts and the R&B charts.

Donna Summer has also had enormous success internationally, with over 40 songs charting in the UK, Germany, or Japan.

Eleven of her albums went gold or platinum, a particularly impressive total considering that many people think of disco as a genre focused on singles. Donna is the only artist to have three double-albums in a row go to number one on Billboard's album chart.

She has five Grammy awards in the R&B, Rock, Inspirational, and Dance categories. Donna Summer was the first African American woman to earn a Rock Grammy.

10. How long did Donna Summer dominate the music scene? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

She dominated the scene for about 3 or 4 years (roughly 1977-1980). Most bands that dominated the scene as Summer did are in the Hall.

11. Is there any evidence to suggest that Donna Summer’s influence or greatness is significantly more or less than what you can see just by counting Grammies and gold records?

Summer wrote or co-wrote most of her songs, which was not a common situation for disco artists. That being said, she was fortunate to hook up with gifted producers such as Giorgio Moroder and Pete Bellotte.

See also #4 above, regarding her influence on other artists, and #5 above, regarding her ability to succeed long after disco’s heyday had passed.

But more than anything else just think about her amazing hits:

• The synth-dance riff of “I Feel Love”
• The way that “Last Dance” moves your heart
• The power of “On the Radio”
• The joy of “This Time I Know It’s For Real”

12. If Donna Summer was the best performer at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

I have never heard her perform live, but I gather that she is a thrilling live performer. That being said, she never headlined an “arena” concert tour as far as I know.

13. What effect did Donna Summer have on pop music history? Was she responsible for any stylistic changes? Did she introduce any new equipment? Did she change history in any way?

As noted at #4 above, her song “I Feel Love” was very influential due to its innovative use of synthesizers.

14. Did she uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

This Boston-born woman has upheld the standards of sportsmanship and character. For example, Summer has played for AIDS benefits and has donated proceeds to AIDS research.

Several of her songs have been banned for being sexually suggestive, but, well, I’m certainly not going to hold that against her!

_________

Bottom line: Summer belongs in the Hall. This is not a close case.

PEOPLE ALL OVER THE WORLD: In case you missed it, Isaac's essay of Black Sabbath's merits for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame gradually veered into a discussion of whether Bill James' "Keltner List" could be modified for such purposes, and, if so, how 2005 nominees The O'Jays would fare. Loyal reader and resident musicologist Bob Elwood took up the challenge:

Adam had suggested that I analyze whether the O’Jays belong in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame using the so-called “Keltner” list, which is usually used to evaluate whether a given baseball player belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The “Keltner” list was developed by famous baseball analyst Bill James in his 1985 Bill James Baseball Abstract. Adam was kind enough to adapt the questions on the list so they make more sense for a musical artist.

1. Were the O’Jays ever regarded as the best band in pop music? Did anybody, while they were active, ever suggest that the O’Jays were the best band in pop music?

I think you have to answer this one no. Then again, we might want to ask Justin Timberlake for his opinion.

2. Were the O’Jays ever the best band in pop music in their genre?

An intriguing question. From 1972 through 1989, the O’Jays put together a string of ten songs that went to #1 on the R&B charts, five of which hit the top 10 on the Billboard charts. Four of these hits are masterpieces that have truly stood the test of time: “Backstabbers” (#1, R&B, #3 pop, 1972), “Love Train” (#1 R&B, #1 pop, 1973), “For the Love of Money” (#3 R&B, #9 pop, 1974), and “I Love Music” (#1 R&B, #5 pop, 1975).

Let’s stipulate that the relevant genre is 1970’s soul music, prior to disco. Are there other solid contenders to claiming the top spot in that genre? The Spinners had only 6 #1 songs on the R&B charts. Although they had more songs hit the pop charts than the O’Jays did, both groups had the same number of top ten pop hits. More importantly, I think the O’Jays have stood the test of time better than the Spinners.

The Stylistics? Betcha by golly, no.

The Delfonics? They didn’t blow my mind this time.

The Isley Brothers? This old heart of mine just isn’t going to pick them over the O’Jays. Anyway, the Isleys are already in the Hall.

The Chi-Lites? Have you seen them? Tell me have you see them?

Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes? Bad luck, that’s what they got, that’s what they got.

The Manhattans? Let’s just kiss and say no way.

The Average White Band? Go ahead and cut the cake, but the O’Jays were better.

The Staple Singers are another strong challenger. Frankly, I’d take the opening of “I’ll Take You There” over any segment of the O’Jays music. But I’ll give the nod to the men from Canton, Ohio on the basis of their entire body of work. By the way, the Staple Singers are already in the Hall.

Three solo artists are clearly superior to the O’Jays in this genre. All three are already in the Hall of Fame and two of them are generally considered geniuses: James Brown, Stevie Wonder, and Al Green.

So I guess I would say that if we limit this question to bands, we can answer yes, but if we include solo artists, the O’Jays rank fourth.

3. Did the O’Jays have an impact on a number of other bands?

The O’Jays were one of the earliest and most successful of the “Philly sound” bands. The “Philly sound” clearly had a huge impact on many other bands. But most people give credit for the success of that sound to the various producers, writers, and arrangers, notably Kenny Gamble, Leon Huff, Gene McFadden, John Whitehead, and Thom Bell. This is a chicken and egg problem. I am inclined to say that the O’Jays had an important impact on other bands, but not a profound one.

Do we get to count Gerald Levert’s success here? I need “closure.”

4. Were the O’Jays good enough that they could play regularly after passing their prime?

The O’Jays formed in 1958, nearly 50 years ago. Their first hit was in 1963 and their most recent hit was just last year (2004’s “Make Up”, which hit #74). They had #1 hits spanning a 17-year period. They deserve a yes on #4.

5. Are the O’Jays the very best band in history that is not in the Hall of
Fame?

I don’t have the energy to do this systematically, but, much as I love the O’Jays, I doubt that they are the very best band in history that is not in the Hall. Not sure who I would place ahead of them, though.

6 Are most bands who have comparable records in the Hall of Fame?

I more or less covered this in #2 and I think you would have to say yes on this question.

7. Do the band's records meet Hall of Fame standards?

I bet that the average inductee had more Top 40 Billboard hits than the O’Jays had, but the O’Jays are in the right ballpark. The O’Jays clearly had more Top 40 hits than many inductees.

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that the band was significantly better or worse than is suggested by its records?

Well, there was that period when Eddie Levert lost three full seasons because he was in the Air Force during the Korean war (joke).

9. Is it the best band in its genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Yes. See #2.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did the O’Jays have? Did they ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times were the O’Jays nominated?

One song hit #1 on the Billboard charts.

Ten songs hit #1 on the R&B charts. Six gold singles. One album hit #1 on the pop album charts. Four albums hit #1 on the so-called “black charts.” At least four gold albums. Not a single damned Grammy award (not sure if they were ever nominated).

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did the O’Jays have? How many Rolling Stone covers did they appear on? Did most of the bands who played in this many Rolling Stone covers go into the Hall of Fame?

Let’s just say that I believe that artists in the O’Jays genre are under-represented on Rolling Stone covers.

12. If this band was the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

Hell, yeah! They are a wicked good band in concert.

13. What impact did the band have on rock history? Was it responsible for any stylistic changes? Did it introduce any new equipment? Did it change history in any way?

See # 2. I don’t think we can really say much on this subject.

14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

No major scandals as far as I know. During one concert, I saw Eddie Levert invite an attractive woman in the audience to participate in some “affectionate” behavior with him. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Conclusion: The O’Jays deserve positive answers on nearly all of the “Keltner” list questions. INDUCT.

And, indeed, they were inducted this year.

If you have a band you'd like to run the Keltner List on, email it to me. Any suggestions for further modifications of the List? Bring it on.

F. SCOTT FITZGERALD WAS WRONG: F. Scott Fitzgerald once famously declared that "there are no second acts in American lives." Mr. Fitzgerald, allow me to introduce you to Mr. Curtis Montague Schilling, an American man of modest accomplishments through the age of 30, who turned out to have an extraordinary second act.

(quick conflict of interest disclosure: I contributed an essay to a book called Win it For, for which Schilling wrote the forward. My aunt has had fairly modest business dealings with Curt Schilling and his wife Shonda. Finally, I am both a Red Sox fan and a fan of Schilling's. I have sought to be even-handed in the analysis below.)

Schilling, a gifted player of what is perhaps our most American of games, announced his retirement yesterday in an uncommonly eloquent and moving essay on his blog:

"Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”

I used to wait with bated breath for Don Meredith to start singing that on Monday night football. Normally it was sweet music if the Steelers were playing.

If I could get him to sing it again I would. This party has officially ended. After being blessed to experience 23 years of playing professional baseball in front of the world's best fans in so many different places, it is with zero regrets that I am making my retirement official.

To say I've been blessed would be like calling Refrigerator Perry 'a bit overweight'. The things I was allowed to experience, the people I was able to call friends, teammates, mentors, coaches and opponents, the travel, all of it, are far more than anything I ever thought possible in my lifetime.

Four World Series, three World Championships. That there are men with plaques in Cooperstown who never experienced one, and I was able to be on three teams over seven years that won it all is another 'beyond my wildest dreams' set of memories I'll be allowed to take with me.

On the day that Curt Schilling turned 30, he had a 52-52 career record. His most similar pitchers from ages 27-29 were Ken Forsch (114 career wins), Ron Robinson (48), and Marty Pattin (114). He was mediocre and on the road to nowhere.

Since turning 30? 164 wins, 94 losses. Plus some of the most dramatic moments in baseball history (see below).

Schilling has often said the pivotal moment in his career came when Roger Clemens read him the riot act during a chance meeting at the Astrodome in the early 1990s. (Query: what sort of advice might Clemens have offered Schilling had they met a half-dozen years later?)

Esteemed baseball writer Rob Neyer offered his views on whether Schilling is a Hall of Famer? His answer:

Of course he is.

It's not his 216 career wins. It's not his .597 career winning percentage. It's not his 11-2 record in postseason games, or his 2.23 ERA. It's not even the bloody sock.

It's all of those things.

[snip]

Two years I was lukewarm about Schilling's Hall of Fame candidacy. I wasn't against it, exactly. But neither was I for it. But during those two years, Schilling helped pitch the Red Sox to another championship and I got just a little bit smarter. Today I can't imagine a Hall of Fame without him.

Here at A List of Things Thrown Together Five Minutes Ago, we do not need to rely solely upon the opinions of sportswriters for we have become experienced at using a tool known as the Keltner list.

The Keltner list is a systematic method created by famed baseball analyst Bill James to consider whether a baseball player deserves to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The Keltner list is not designed to yield an binary answer about a player's worthiness, but is instead intended to shed some light on how strong a showing a player can make in 15 areas. As James wrote, "you can't total up the score and say that everybody who is at eight or above should be in, or anything like that." The list originally appeared in James' 1985 Baseball Abstract together with the anecdote of how he developed the Keltner list.

With no further ado, here is my take on how Schilling fares on the Keltner list:

1. Was Schilling ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

The answer is no, but it is perhaps a little closer than you might expect. Unusually for a pitcher, he finished in the top 14 in the MVP voting 4 times.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

A close call. He may well have been the best player on the 1992 Phillies, although Darren Daulton and John Kruk would be strong contenders as well. He appears to have been the best player on the 1997 Phillies, although that team was not especially strong. He was the second best player on the 2002 Diamondbacks, although the top player on that team was Randy Johnson, who had an extraordinarily good season that year. On the World Champion 2004 Red Sox, Schilling and Manny Ramirez were of roughly equal value, although Ramirez fared better in the MVP voting.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Again a close call, but I think you would have to say no to both questions. He finished second three times in the Cy Young voting. In two of those cases, he lost to a pitcher having an extraordinary season (Johnson in 2002, Santana in 2004). He also finished 4th in the Cy Young voting once.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Emphatically yes! Let me toss out four numbers: 1993, 2002, 2004, and 2007. I could fill ten pages on this subject.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. At age 37, he finished second in the Cy Young award balloting and was the best or second best player on a World Series Champion. At age 39, he had an ERA+ of 122 (10th best in the AL). At age 40, he had an ERA+ of 120 (just outside the top ten). He was the 7th oldest player in MLB that year.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. There must be 5 or more players ahead of him.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Possibly the most interesting question among the 15. There are a lot of ways to go about answering this.

Let me start with the big picture. Baseball-reference.com sets forth 4 HOF tests that are designed to evaluate if a player belongs in the HOF. Each test is calculated slightly differently. Under the "Black Ink" test, Schilling scores 42 (34th best among all pitchers). The average HOFer scores about 40 on this test.

Under the "Gray Ink" test, Schilling scores 205, again 34th best among all pitchers (Average HOFer ≈ 185). Using the "HOF Standards" test Schilling scores 46.0 (48th best) (Average HOFer ≈ 50). Applying the "HOF Monitor" test, Schilling scores 171.0, 33rd best among all pitchers (Likely HOFer > 100). Thus, on 3 of the 4 most commonly accepted tests, Schilling exceeds the HOF standard and on the 4th test he is fairly close to the score for the average HOF member. I think on the basis of these "big picture" tests, you would have to say yes with respect to question 7.

Schilling has many other impressive statistics and a few that are not so impressive. He finished in the top ten in ERA 9 times, a very impressive showing. He led the league in strikeouts twice and finished among the top ten in the league a total of 9 times, another impressive feat. With 3,116 career strikeouts, he ranks 16th all-time, a very impressive accomplishment (every eligible pitcher with 3,000 or more strikeouts is in the HOF, except, inexplicably, Bert Blyleven).

On the other hand, Schilling won "only" 216 games, which is quite low for HOF pitchers. As noted here, there are two main reasons why Schilling did not accumulate a larger number of wins, and the second should be seen as a point in his favor.

First, he found success relatively late, in part due to injury, but also because of a somewhat reckless youth.

Second, common sense suggests he cost himself at least one season of his career, and perhaps more, by pitching through his gruesome injury during the 2004 postseason. Curt sacrificed some of his career statistics to help the Red Sox win the team's first World Series in 86 years. Let's just say that I am happy he did what he did.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

See #7. I would give Schilling a yes vote on #8, but reasonable minds could differ.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Yes, in Schilling's favor. His postseason record is equal to or better than that of any pitcher in MLB history. Curt won 11 of 19 playoff starts while losing just two. His ERA was 2.23, and his WHIP an amazing 0.97. He struck out 120 batters in 133.1 innings, while allowing just 104 hits. He walked just 25. When you faced Schilling in a crucial game, you went into it with a pretty good idea that you weren't going to defeat him, and he sure as hell wasn't going to defeat himself.

If you don't put arguably the most accomplished postseason pitcher of any era in Cooperstown, then what's the point of even having the place?

Anyone who has read this far probably knows the story about Curt's bloody sock.

As Bill Simmons put it:

The Schilling Game takes its place alongside the Willis Reed Game, MJ's Flu Game, Bird banging his head against the Pacers and everything else in the Sheer Guts Pantheon.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

No. I am going to ignore the word "eligible" in the foregoing question because Schilling himself is not yet eligible. Among the pitchers who are eligible or who have had quite substantial careers already, Schilling ranks behind several, including Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Schilling was never really a serious MVP candidate. As noted above, he finished second three times in the Cy Young voting. In two of those cases, he lost to a pitcher having an extraordinary season (Johnson in 2002, Santana in 2004). He also finished 4th in the Cy Young voting once.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

Schilling was on the All-Star team 6 times, although he did not play in all of the games for which he was selected. I do not know how this compares to other HOF pitchers.

The phrase "All-Star-type seasons" is a little vague. He had ten seasons with an ERA+ over 133. In most years, that would rank between 5th best and 10th best in a league, which seems like a reasonable approximation of what it means to have an All-Star-type season.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Not sure how to answer this one. On the one hand, this was arguably the case in 2004, when Schilling was a contender for the best player on the Red Sox and the Red Sox won the WS. That being said, I am having trouble with the phrase "would it be likely that the team could win the pennant." I think a typical peak Curt Schilling season could lead a team to win the pennant, but I think he would need a solid supporting cast to make that better than a 50/50 proposition.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

I don't think the clever use of orthopedic devices really amounts to all that much.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Emphatically yes. Schilling is a very strong supporter of care for ALS sufferers. His organization, Curt's Pitch for ALS, allows fans and organizations to sponsor him, donating to the ALS Association for every strikeout he throws.

I think the bloody sock speaks volumes about character and sportsmanship as well.

* * * * * * * *

Schilling is not a slam dunk for the HOF. I think he deserves a positive answer on many of the Keltner questions, but by no means on all of them. For what I think is a balanced but somewhat skeptical view on the subject see Tony Massarotti's story.

I suspect that Schilling will be enshrined, but not in his first year of eligibility.

MAMA SAYS SHE'S WORRIED/GROWING UP IN A HURRY, YEAH: With Heart's nomination to the Hall of Fame, you really have to ask yourself which Heart you're talking about.  Because there were two Hearts (and maybe three):  pre-1980s Heart, who made classic rock and roll music and sold a decent amount of records; 1980s-and-later Heart, who cranked out a string of hugely popular bland power ballads; and, maybe, if you are charitable, Lovemongers-era Heart, mentors to a Seattle music scene of which they were really not a part.  It's not just that you have to consider the three key criteria for HOF induction, quality, popularity, and influence; it is that you have to evaluate each of those criteria for each period of the band's history.  Most bands have a peak and a decline.  Heart has different peaks for each of the different criteria.  They're a weird case.  Keltner (explanation) me! 

1.  Was Heart ever regarded as the best band in rock music?  Did anybody, while they were active, ever suggest that Heart was the best band in rock music? 

I doubt it.  In the early period, I'd guess that 90% of the people who were fans of Heart, including every member of Heart, would have said they liked Led Zeppelin better.  Later, I think people would say their popularity was broader than it was deep. 

2.  Was Heart ever the best band in rock music in its genre? 

No.  I won't even bother to explain myself unless somebody shows up to say that they honestly believe that at some point (please identify the point), Heart was the best band in its genre.  Honest opinions only, please; no straw men. 

3.  Was any individual member of Heart ever considered the best at his instrument/role? 

JUSTIFY MY VOTE: You may have heard of Madonna. She's up for the Rock Hall this year, but is she worthy? Perhaps the Keltner test will help:

1. Was Madonna ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? Did anybody, while she was active, ever suggest that Madonna was the best artist in rock music?

Regarded as the best in all of rock? Perhaps not. Critical respect hasn’t always followed Madonna around, but admiration for her tenacity and endurance certainly has.

2. Was Madonna ever the best artist in rock music in her genre?

Hells yeah. From 1983-1989 (Madonna, Live A Virgin, True Blue, Like A Prayer), you’re not going to find anyone who recorded that many memorable, great pop songs and had that level of impact on the culture.

Here’s just the singles from that period: Everybody, Burning Up, Holiday, Borderline, Lucky Star, Like A Virgin, Material Girl, Crazy for You, Angel, Into the Groove, Dress You Up, Live To Tell, Papa Don’t Preach, True Blue, Open Your Heart, La Isla Bonita, Who’s That Girl, Causing A Commotion, Like A Prayer, Express Yourself, and Cherish. If you can't sing pretty much all of them -- and if you don't like just about all of them -- then you're not of my generation.

Then there’s Vogue and Justify My Love, and then a brief dry period before Ray of Light re-established herself as an avatar of dance music. She picked the right producers at the right times, throughout her career, and has stayed current for a damn long time.

3. Was any member of Madonna ever considered the best at his instrument/role?

Does “most famous female celebrity in America” count?

4. Did Madonna have an impact on a number of other artists?

Every female artist since Madonna owes her a significant debt for opening up the space to be confident and sexual and provocative. This leads to both good results (Liz Phair, PJ Harvey) and bad ones (Britney Spears, Jessica Simpson).

She may have had an impact on the use of music video in promoting recording artists.

Madonna basically invented the concert-as-choreographed-Broadwayish-production which so many artists followed today.

Oh, and the Beastie Boys were the opening act on her first tour.

5. Was Madonna good enough that she could play regularly after passing her prime?

Sure. Whenever she wants. She’s become a better singer over time, and has had an unerring sense of the zeitgeist. She’s the third-oldest woman to have a number-one single (“Music”), behind Cher (“Believe”) and Tina Turner (“What’s Love Got To Do With It?”)

6. Is Madonna the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?

Best? Depends on your respect for pop music and phenomenon-creating.

Biggest? Yes.

7. Are most artists who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?

Artists with her level of impact are first-ballot inductees. Artists with her level of impact don’t really need Keltner analysis.

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that Madonna was significantly better or worse than is suggested by its statistical records?

I think we know how big Madonna is. As Fametracker would say, Madonna's current approximate level of fame is "Madonna," and back in the 1980s and 1990s, she may have been even more famous than Madonna, if that's possible. If anything, her level of fame may lead some to underestimate just how good she was as a recording artist as well.

9. Is Madonna the best artist in her genre which is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

She is the best pop performer, and best female artist, not in the Hall of Fame.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did Madonna have? Did Madonna ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Madonna nominated?

Six number one albums, four #2s and a #3. Twelve number-one hits and thirty-six top tens. Only Mariah Carey has more #1 singles; Madonna is tied with Diana Ross and the Supremes for second among female artists.

She has recorded forty-seven top 40 singles, a record for a female artist, and among all artists is only behind Elvis Presley's 104, Elton John’s 54 and The Beatles’ 51.

Seventeen platinum albums, twelve of them going multi-platinum, two diamond (10 million+ sold). Only Barbra Streisand has more top-ten albums among female artists.

Her seven #1s in the 1980s ties the most for a female artist with Whitney Houston.

Twenty-five Grammy nominations and six wins, her first not being until 1992 (a video award), followed by three for Ray of Light, one for “Beautiful Stranger” and one for Confessions on the Dance Floor.

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Madonna have? For how long of a period did Madonna dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Madonna appear on? Did most of the artists with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

She has dominated the music scene whenever she wanted to – 1983-1991, especially. Madonna has appeared on more magazine covers than almost any other entertainer of her generation.

12. If Madonna was the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

You would have a good time. I attended the Blonde Ambition tour, and it was hella fun.

13. What impact did Madonna have on rock history? Was Madonna responsible for any stylistic changes? Did Madonna introduce any new equipment? Did Madonna change history in any way?

Her impact on music history is unmistakeable -- the roles a female artist could inhabit, the importance of video and image, etc. Entire college courses can be constructed around the question. Whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing is debatable, but she can’t be responsible for all of her cultural offspring. Among that downside? She helped popularize and (to a certain extent) legitimize the use of prerecorded vocals in "live" performance.

Madonna is a singular artist who, yes, changed music history, and it took a long time for the public to understand just how smart she was at cultivating and maintaining her image.

14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Well, at Live Aid 1985, she did say “I ain’t takin’ shit off today” and kept to her word. Her spirit of calculated defiance and provocation embodies what the RRHOF celebrates.

I leave you with the words of Dan Bern, from “Tiger Woods”:

I got a friend whose goal in life
Was to one day go down on Madonna
That's all he wanted
That was all
To one day go down on Madonna
And when my friend was thirty-four
He got his wish in Rome one night
He got to go down on Madonna
In Rome one night in some hotel
And ever since he's been depressed
'Cause life is shit from here on in
And all our friends just shake their heads
And say, "Too soon, too soon, too soon,
He went down on Madonna too soon
Too young, too young, too soon, too soon"

I don’t know if there’s more to say. Oh, okay, this video,which always makes me smile.

Absolute first-ballot inner-sanctum inductee.

PLEASE DO HIM WRONG. PLEASE CAST HIM OFF DISCOURTEOUSLY: It's Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Keltner season, and at some point in the near future recent past Adam is going to point out that, other than (depending upon your personal preference) Chic, Bon Jovi, and Metallica, all of whom we Keltnerized last year, and one additional first-ballot addition, this is a crappy class. Adam volunteered me to Keltnerize nominee Jeff Beck, but I'm not going to do it. You don't need a Keltner analysis to tell you that Mark Langston doesn't make the cut for the baseball Hall of Fame, and Jeff Beck isn't getting one just because he was an early adopter of standing too close to the amp while playing. He's boring. End of story.

I will, however, recite for you the following facts (in small part aided by Wikipedia, I feel impelled to admit), which collectively represent all you really need to know about Jeff Beck:

• Served 18 months of bridge duty between Eric Clapton and Jimmy Page in the band that eventually collapsed and became Led Zeppelin.
• Clearly inspired Nigel Tufnel's haircut and wardrobe, and possibly Tufnel's childish petulance, in Spinal Tap.
• Was unable to create a hit single in two albums with a young Rod Stewart (though he and Stewart much later had a hit with a bastardization of the Impressions' sublime "People Get Ready").
• Jointly responsible for revitalizing the bloated charity benefit when he, Page, Clapton, Stewart, and Ron Wood staged the Rock for ARMS (Action for Research into Multiple Sclerosis) concert to benefit Ronnie Lane, which in turn prompted a delusional Neil Schon to muse that the 1980s equivalent of Clapton/Page/Beck was Schon/Santana/Van Halen.
• Contributed to annoying pomp-rock fetishization of "Greensleeves," the sixteenth-century version of "Hey Ya."
• Gave Carmine Appice his first high-profile job (unless you consider Cactus high-profile), thus inadvertently unleashing the Terrible Reign of the Ruggedly Handsome Drum-Pounding Appices.
• The first song on his first solo album was a cover of a two-year-old song by his former band, which he didn't write.
• Was a dick. Reportedly.

THESE ARE THE GOOD TIMES? Our 2006 Keltner Rock Hall series continues with an analysis of two bands, Chic and Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five. Both are on the list of 9 finalists.

Let me deal first with a basic question. The name of the Hall is clearly misleading. The “Rock and Roll Hall of Fame” is by no means limited to “rock and roll” or even “rock” music. Members of the Hall include blues musicians, soul stars, and country artists. The Hall has even inducted jazz musicians! Frankly, the name of the Hall should probably be something like the “Popular Music Hall of Fame.” Although there are (arguably) no disco artists or hip hop and rap artists in the Hall, I cannot see a principled objection to excluding them. Accordingly, I will proceed on the basis that Chic, a “disco” group, and GF&TF5, a “rap” group, should not be denied on the basis that they did not perform “rock and roll” music.

One last point before jumping into the Keltner questions. It turns out that Grandmaster Flash the person (born Joseph Saddler) does not actually appear on the songs "The Message" or "White Lines". I never knew that.

1. Was Chic or Grandmaster Flash ever regarded as the best band in popular music?

No. One could make the case that GF&TF5 made the most interesting music in 1982 and 1983, but I don’t think many people would agree that it was the best band in pop music at the time.

2. Was Chic or GF&TF5 ever the best band in pop music in its genre?

Quite possibly.

From 1977 to 1979 Chic released four major disco hits – “Dance, Dance, Dance”, which hit #6 on the pop charts, “Le Freak”, which was #1 for a whopping 6 weeks, “I Want Your Love”, which went to #7, and “Good Times”, which hit #1 on the pop charts and the R&B charts. Although there are other contenders, notably Earth Wind & Fire, Donna Summer, and the various P-Funk bands, Chic was probably the top disco band during that period.

Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five was clearly the most successful and influential rap group from 1982 to 1983.

3. Was any individual member of Chic or Grandmaster Flash ever considered the best at his instrument/role?

Yes.

Bernard Edwards of Chic is considered one of the most important bass players of all time. His bass line from the song "Good Times" is one of the most frequently sampled pieces of music in history. It was used in the first major rap hit in history, Sugarhill Gang's "Rappers Delight". Edwards had a huge influence on other musicians.

Grandmaster Flash (the person) is one of the pioneers of hip-hop DJing, cutting (moving between tracks exactly on the beat), and back-spinning (manually turning records to repeat brief snippets of sound). I don’t feel confident about my ability to judge this accurately, but I think you would probably have to say that he was considered the best (or one of the best) at that role for at least the period from 1979 to 1983.

4. Did Chic or GF&TF5 have an impact on a number of other bands?

Absolutely.

In the case of Chic, the impact is most obvious when you consider how often “Good Times” has been sampled. Wikipedia notes that the song has been “sampled innumerable times by artists of the most diverse genres, from Rap to Punk and Techno to Pop.” The groove from "Good Times" was the foundation of Queen's 1980 number one pop hit "Another One Bites the Dust."

Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five were among rap's greatest innovators, going far beyond the genre's party-oriented origins to explore somber issues such as drugs and life in the ghetto.

5. Were Chic and GF&TF5 good enough to play regularly after passing their prime?

No. Both bands had an amazing peak period, but limited long term “career” value. The members of Chic, especially Bernard Edwards and Nile Rogers, had a fair amount of success after the group disbanded. In 1996, Billboard Magazine honored Rodgers as the "Top Producer in the World".

6. Are Chic or GF&TF5 the very best bands in history that are not in the Hall of Fame?

No.

7. Are most bands with a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?

The Hall has not been kind to other disco artists or hip hop artists, although that may be because some of the key figures in each genre are not yet eligible.

As Adam noted earlier in his discussion of Depeche Mode, this is where we get into the messy Small Hall/Large Hall argument. On the one hand, Chic’s claim to fame is basically the four great songs listed above in #2 (plus a minor hit “Everybody Dance”). Those four hits were major chart successes and one song is incredibly influential. On the other hand, the band was not known for its albums and, well, five Top 40 hits for a band best known for its singles is a modest amount of hits to be considered for the Hall.

Similarly, GF&TF5’s claim to fame rests primarily upon three songs – “The Message”, “White Lines”, and “The Adventures of Grandmaster Flash on the Wheels of Steel” (the latter is a prime example of cutting). Three songs simply isn’t that solid a body of work.

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that the bands were significantly better or worse than is suggested by their records?

Probably not.

9. Are these the best band in their genres that are eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Hard to say. As noted above in #2, Chic is clearly one of the most deserving disco bands, possibly the best among those eligible. Other contenders would include Donna Summer and KC and the Sunshine Band, both of whom had far more hits than Chic did (but probably less influence on other artists). There are relatively few rap or hip-hop artists eligible, which makes it hard to answer this question for Flash and company. I would seriously consider Run-DMC and The Sugarhill Gang as deserving artists in Flash’s genre.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did Chic or GF&TF5 have? Did Chic or GF&TF5 ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times were they nominated?

Chic had two #1 singles, four gold singles, and two gold albums. Chic had no Grammy awards or nominations. Chic’s career came before the Grammy recognized separate categories for dance music.

Strangely enough, none of Grandmaster Flash’s hits made the pop charts. I believe that the band had three gold records. Like Chic, GF&TF5 had no Grammy awards or nominations. Flash’s career came before the Grammy recognized separate categories for hip hop music.

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Chic or GF&TF5 have? For how long of a period did the bands dominate the music scene? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

See above.

12. If this band was the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

Reports suggest that both bands were unusually good in concert.

13. What impact did the band have on rock history? Was it responsible for any stylistic changes? Did it introduce any new equipment? Did it change history in any way?

Arguably yes. See above.

14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

I have nothing to say here.

Conclusion: Like Adam, I am more of a Small Hall guy. These bands present a very difficult case for me. Each had only a few key songs, but those songs turned out to be quite influential. Ultimately, I am inclined to urge that Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five be inducted because I truly perceive that the band pioneered hip-hop, which has become the dominant musical genre of the past 20 or so years. I am inclined to pass on Chic’s induction, but I do wish the Hall would admit more disco artists.

DEDICATED TO LUNA "KELTNER":

1. Was Patti Smith ever regarded as the best artist in rock music?

Possibly yes, but I do not think that would be a consensus view. In 1975, Smith’s album Horses was second in the prestigious Village Voice “Pazz and Jop” poll. Perhaps you have heard of the album that ended up third on that list? It’s called Born to Run.

1975 was an astonishingly strong year for music. Every other artist with an album in the Top Ten in that poll in 1975 is already in the Hall! More than half of the artists in the Top 30 are in the Hall.

Although 1975 was clearly the peak of her critical success, Smith received grades of A- or better from noted critic Robert Christgau on 5 of her 11 albums.

2. Was Patti Smith ever the best band in rock music in her genre?

This question on the Keltner list often gives me trouble. In what genre does Smith’s music belong?

Punk rock? You could perhaps make the case that she was at the top of that genre in 1975, but she would not be regarded as the best punk rocker in any other year. She was among the first American punks to get a record contract.

“Poetic” rock? That’s not really a standard genre, but it seems to fit Smith like a glove and she would certainly be a standard bearer in that genre, given her Rimbaud influenced songs.

Female hard rock? On the one hand, this fits her well since there were very few women in music then who rocked as hard as she did. On the other hand, Smith defined herself as an artist, not a “female” artist. Yet, as allmusic.com notes “in the process, she obliterated the expectations of what was possible for women in rock, and stretched the boundaries of how artists of any gender could express themselves.”

3. Was Patti Smith ever considered the best at her instrument or role?

No, I don’t think that Smith was ever considered the best at her instrument.

If you define “role” to include creating a prototype for women in rock, then you’d have to give Smith a resoundingly positive response to this question (see #4).

4. Did Patti Smith have an impact on a number of other musicians?

Emphatically yes. Her bio on allmusic.com begins “Punk rock's poet laureate, Patti Smith ranks among the most influential female rock & rollers of all time.”

5. Was Patti Smith good enough to have an unusually long career?

If we compare Smith to the typical musician, the answer is clearly yes. If we compare Smith to the typical member of the Hall, the answer is less clear. She had a very strong period from 1975 to 1979. She then had intermittent success with albums in 1988, 2002, and 2004. I think you would have to give Smith the benefit of the doubt on this question, but it’s a close call.

6. Is Patti Smith the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. Even among this year’s nominees, many people would put R.E.M. ahead of her.

7. Are most artists who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?

I think the answer must be yes, but who is a good comparable for Smith? Joni Mitchell? The Ramones?

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that Smith was significantly better or worse than is suggested by her recordings?

Possibly. For about 15 years Smith stayed at home and raised her children, a truly laudable endeavor. From 1989 to 1994 she endured the deaths of her husband, her brother, and several other of her closest collaborators.

9. Is Smith the best artist within her genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Off the top of my head, no other artists within Smith’s “genre” come to mind as being more deserving, but I have not examined this question systematically.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did Patti Smith have? Did Smith ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Smith nominated?

Smith had NO #1 singles and only two songs that hit any of the charts. She had no gold records. This is clearly the weak point of her candidacy for the Hall.

Smith was never nominated for a Grammy (to the best of my knowledge). I’m not sure we should hold that against her.

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did PATTI SMITH have? For how long of a period did the band dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did she appear on? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

Smith had 4 very strong albums from 1975 to 1979. She had many songs that received a lot of radio airplay. She dominated the scene during that 4-year period. I think that both the number of her strong albums and the length of time she dominated the scene are probably below average if we compare her to other members of the Hall (but see # 8 above). Nonetheless, for the reasons set forth in #1 and 2 above, I would say that most of the bands with the sort of impact Smith had go into the Hall of Fame.

12. If Patti Smith was the best artist at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

Damn straight. The allmusic.com site says she was “a powerful concert presence, singing and chanting her lyrics in an untrained but expressive voice, whirling around the stage like an ecstatic shaman delivering incantations.”

13. What impact did she have on rock history? Was she responsible for any stylistic changes? Did she introduce any new equipment? Did she change history in any way?

See #2, 3, and 4 above. Let’s just say that the Pretenders might appreciate what Smith accomplished.

She did not introduce any new equipment.

14. Did Smith uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

See #8 above. Smith is full of integrity and kindness. That counts for a lot in my book.

I count 8 positive answers and only 2 clearly negative ones. Smith merits inclusion.

"Here I go and I don't know why
I spin so ceaselessly
‘Til I lose my sense of gravity"

Those words say as much about the power of desire as anyone ever has in pop music.

BY RESIDENT ALOTT5MA MUSICOLOGIST BOB ELWOOD: As some of you may recall, a few weeks ago I discussed whether the O’Jays belong in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame using the Keltner Test from the 1985 Bill James Baseball Abstract. I had several requests to do the same analysis for other bands.

Today’s task is to evaluate whether Rush belongs in the Hall. I would like to thank Alan Promer, who was kind enough to look this over for me. Alan is a huge Rush fan (I am not) and I suspect that had he written this, it might well have had a different approach:

1. Was Rush ever regarded as the best band in rock music? Did anybody, while they were active, ever suggest that Rush was the best band in rock music?
I think you have to answer this one no. Be cool or be cast out.

2. Was Rush ever the best band in rock music in its genre?
This is an intriguing question since Rush does not fit neatly into a clearly defined genre. Hard rock? Progressive rock? “Album-oriented rock”? Rock sung by guys with really high-pitched voices?

Evaluating Rush also calls to mind the “peak value” vs. “career value” debate that dominates the discussion of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Rush has had an extraordinarily long and productive career, but has had limited “peak” success. For example, while many of its albums have hit the Top Ten, none has topped the album charts.

The Keltner list is designed to assess whether a given band deserves to be in the Hall, not whether a band is likely to be inducted. It’s an important distinction. My sense is that Rush has not garnered a great deal of support among the Hall voters, which suggests to me that the odds are that the band will not be inducted soon.

Rush started out as a hard rock band and quickly morphed from that proto-metal sound to a progressive rock approach. In the 1980s Rush was still thought of as a progressive rock band, but they were no longer writing long songs with science fiction themes. More recently, Rush has returned to hard rock/album rock. I would say, in general, the band’s genre is “album-oriented rock.”

There are really no directly comparable bands, but Yes is probably the closest thing in that both were progressive in the long-artsy-song-that-is-still “rock” sense, and both bands went to a more pop sound in the 1980s (Yes had “Owner of a Lonely Heart,” Rush had “Time Stand Still”).

Rush fans make an important and often overlooked point when they observe that the band has a virtuosity seldom achieved by other bands. Rush’s drummer Neil Peart won the Best Rock Drummer polls of Modern Drummer magazine no less than six years in a row (along with other awards for percussion), and was eventually given Hall of Fame status to give other drummers a chance. Geddy Lee has been voted Best Rock Bassist more than 6 times by readers of Guitar magazine, and is in that magazine’s Hall of Fame.

I will review Rush’s status within three musical genres below, but I truly think that this approach shortchanges the band. Meaning this as a compliment, Rush is the rare band that transcends easy categorization.

2(a) Hard Rock
The term “hard rock” is loosely defined, and is used most commonly to define radio station formats. Here is a great summary. The term overlaps somewhat with the term “heavy metal”, but among other differences, hard rock typically features the use of major keys, whereas heavy metal frequently uses minor keys.

Rush’s self-titled debut album resembles the work of Led Zeppelin. Led Zeppelin did a far better job at being Led Zeppelin than Rush did. Even Rush fans would have to admit that Rush’s hard rock albums are inferior to those of Led Zeppelin. Although Led Zeppelin had a much shorter career, their albums sold much better than Rush’s did and, unlike Rush, Led Zeppelin had 6 Top 40 songs and many other songs that got significant airplay.

Among other hard rock bands of that era, I think you would have to say that Deep Purple had more success in its short career than Rush has had. Deep Purple had 4 Top 40 hits, including “Smoke on the Water”, which virtually every guitar player knows. Rush has had better success on the album charts than Deep Purple has had.

Finally, each of AC/DC, Van Halen, Aerosmith, The Who, and Black Sabbath would also seem to warrant the nod over Rush based on each band’s hard rock body of work.

The “100 Greatest Artists of Hard Rock” was a special on VH1 in 2002. It was a list of what a panel of experts considered to be the one hundred best acts of hard rock. While I don’t love the list, it is noteworthy that Rush ranked #28 on the list behind many bands that are not in the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. The band’s poor showing may be a manifestation of its poor status among rock critics. For example, Robert Christgau, often referred to as the dean of rock music critics, often referred to as the dean of rock music critics, has only bothered to review one Rush album (and that album received an unfavorable review).

2(b) Progressive Rock
Many people think of Rush as a progressive rock band. Many people also think of progressive rock as excessively grandiose and more than a little precious. Rush fans observe (correctly) that Rush was a progressive rock band only from 1975 through 1979, a small segment of the band’s long life.

I think a decent number of progressive rock bands, such as Yes, Pink Floyd, Genesis, and, possibly Jethro Tull, achieved greater success than Rush did (particularly if you just consider Rush’s five years as a progressive rock band).

With some measure of sadness, I think you would have to conclude that Rush was never the best band in rock music in the progressive rock genre.

2(c) Album-Oriented Rock
Album-oriented rock, abbreviated AOR, is a broadly defined term, originally an American FM radio format focusing on album tracks by rock music artists rather than singles releases. Due to the broad definition, it’s hard to compare Rush to other AOR bands.

Wikipedia lists the following bands as examples of AOR:

Boston
Foreigner
Journey
Pink Floyd
REO Speedwagon
Survivor
Toto

With the exception of Pink Floyd, a band that has obviously achieved more popular success than Rush, none of these bands really resemble Rush. Few of these bands have been inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame and I think the odds are long that any of them will ever be inducted.

2(d) Conclusion
Although I am sympathetic to the views of Rush fans, I don’t think you can say that Rush was ever the best band in rock music in its genre. Rush gets a “no” on this important question #2 in my opinion.

3. Did Rush have an impact on a number of other bands?
The All Music Guide lists 18 bands as “followers” of Rush, a relatively high number. That list includes Primus, a band that has achieved a fair measure of success. Metallica is not on the list, nor are The Smashing Pumpkins, but both probably should be there considering that the members of both bands have expressed their admiration for Rush and have cited Rush as an important influence. That being said, I am comfortable in saying that few of those 18 bands have enjoyed substantial commercial or critical success and only Metallica among the “follower” bands has any real chance of ever being elected to the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

I think Rush deserves a yes on #3.

4. Was Rush good enough that the band could play regularly after passing its prime?
Rush deserves an emphatic yes on #4. The band’s last studio album peaked at # 6. That was in 2002, 28 years after the band began. Also, according to a fan website, "Rush has 22 consecutive gold records, and is fourth behind The Beatles, The Stones, and Kiss in all-time gold record acquisitions for a band. Fourteen of those albums have gone platinum."

5. Is Rush the very best band in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?
No. I am not going to do this systematically, but Rush is clearly not the very best band in history that is not in the Hall.

6. Are most bands who have comparable records in the Hall of Fame?
As discussed above in question #2, this is a hard question to answer in Rush’s case because there are few bands that are truly similar.

If, for example, you focus on albums that have been designated gold or platinum albums, then Rush is right up there with two “first ballot” Hall of Fame inductees -- the Beatles and the Rolling Stones. On the other hand, Rush has had only one single hit the pop charts. I suspect that just about every band that has been elected to the Hall has had considerably greater success in that regard.

I am going to score #6 as a “no”, but I acknowledge that reasonable minds could differ on this.

7. Do the band's records meet Hall of Fame standards?
See #6 and #2. I think this has to be a “no.”

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that the band was significantly better or worse than is suggested by its records?
Yes. See 2 above. The virtuosity of Neil Peart and Geddy Lee are a major factor in favor of Rush.

See also #3 above. Rush has been an influential band.

9. Is it the best band in its genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
Probably not. See #2.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did Rush have? Did Rush ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Rush nominated?
No #1 singles. No gold singles.

22 gold albums, which is a very high number. Few members of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame can even come close to that.

No Grammy awards, but Rush has received 3 Grammy nominations for “Best Rock Instrumental Performance.”

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Rush have? How many Rolling Stone covers did they appear on? Did most of the bands who played in this many Rolling Stone covers go into the Hall of Fame?
I don’t know.

12. If this band was the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?
Yes. Rush puts on good concerts.

13. What impact did the band have on rock history? Was it responsible for any stylistic changes? Did it introduce any new equipment? Did it change history in any way?
Rush deserves a positive answer on #13. See # 3. Rush was a big influence on about 20 bands. That counts for something.

14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
No major scandals as far as I know.

Conclusion: Rush deserves positive answers on only 7 of the 14 “Keltner” list questions. I think you would have to conclude on that basis that Rush does not belong in the Hall. --Bob Elwood

JACKET REQUIRED FOR INDUCTION: As part of our continuing effort to discuss the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, each of us has agreed to Keltner-ize a nominee or potential nominee. It's my privilege (and I use that term exceedingly loosely here) to analyze the merits of an induction for Phil Collins as a solo artist. This is purely directed to Collins as a solo artist, and contains minimal, if any, references to his work with Genesis.

1. Was Phil Collins ever regarded as the best artist in rock music? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that Phil Collins was the best artist in rock music?

I'm sure someone at some point suggested that Phil Collins was the best artist in the world. They would be incorrect.

2. Was Phil Collins ever the best artist in rock music in his genre?

See #1 above.

3. Was Phil Collins ever considered the best at his instrument/role?

No. While he's consistently been considered to be a talented drummer and decent vocalist, few (if any) would give him the accolade of being one of the greatest drummers or vocalists ever. Minor points are scored for the relative novelty of being a drummer/vocalist.

4. Did Phil Collins have an impact on a number of other bands?

I think this has to be given as a "yes." While the "followers" list in AllMusicGuide lists almost no other notable bands, Collins really created "Adult Contemporary" as a genre, and a number of his songs have become staples (e.g., "Against All Odds").

5. Was Phil Collins good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Depends on when you consider his "prime" to be. Arguably, his prime is 1985, with No Jacket Required, and Collins has continued to play to sold out large crowds regularly, both with Genesis (through 1996) and as a solo artist. He's continued to play and generate hits and awards since. I think this is a "yes."

6. Is Phil Collins the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?

I think not.

7. Are most bands who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?

Hard to say, since Collins is really the parent of the "Adult Contemporary" genre, so most of his progeny are not yet Hall eligible. However, given that Genesis is not in the Hall (and seriously, you'd think that either Genesis or Peter Gabriel would go in), the answer to this one has to be "no."

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that Phil Collins was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his records?

Yes. Although Collins has had a (surprisingly) longlived career and an impressive statistical record, there's no question that he and his music are the butt of much joking and ridicule, especially in more recent years--witness this review of his recent effort on Broadway. This factor weighs against induction.

9. Is Phil Collins the best artist in his genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No, though this is arguable, since much of his "genre," which I'd consider "adult contemporary," is not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did Phil Collins have? Did Phil Collins ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was Phil Collins nominated?

Solely as a solo artist: 1 diamond album (No Jacket Required), 7 Platinum albums (....Hits, Face Value, Serious Hits...Live!, Hello I Must Be Going, But Seriously, Both Sides, Tarzan Soundtrack), 2 Gold albums (Dance Into The Light, Buster Soundtrack), 7 #1 singles ("Against All Odds," "One More Night," "Sussudio," "Separate Lives," "Groovy Kind of Love," "Two Hearts," "Another Day In Paradise"), 7 Grammy awards and 25 total nominations, 1 Oscar, 2 Golden Globes. A powerful statistical case there weighing in favor.

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did Phil Collins have? For how long of a period did Phil Collins dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did Phil Collins appear on? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

Well, in addition to the #1's charted above, "Take Me Home," "Something Happened On The Way To Heaven," "Dance Into the Light," "In The Air Tonight," "Easy Lover," and the "You Can't Hurry Love" and "True Colors" covers even now get radio play from time to time, and "In The Air Tonight" would probably make a top 50 list of enduring artificacts from 80s pop culture. 1 Rolling Stone cover (1983). The statisitical record and list of individual hits would seem to be Hall of Fame worthy.

12. If Phil Collins was the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

While Collins has had two successful live albums, the concert would "rock" in a strictly adult contemporary way.

13. What impact did Phil Collins have on rock history? Was he responsible for any stylistic changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change history in any way?

The introduction of "adult contemporary" as a genre and Collins' extensive use of synthesizers are both of note, but not significant enough to support, on their own, Collins' induction.

14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Breaking up with his wife by fax is a negative point. Collins' consistent charitable work is a minor tick in favor, but not so substantial that it matters. However, looking at the rest in the Hall, I think this is a neutral factor.

Conclusion

Despite a powerful and substantial statistical case in favor of induction, Collins' work lacks sufficient artistic merit, as measured by the negative answers to questions 1-3 and 6-9 on the Keltner list, to warrant induction as a solo artist, though if Genesis' work is considered as well, Collins may be competitive.

IF THE REAL THING DON'T DO THE TRICK, YOU BETTER MAKE UP SOMETHING QUICK:  Nominees for the 2012 class of inductees into the Rock and Roll Non-Country Popular Music of the 1950s and Beyond Hall of Fame have been announced, and in advance (or in lieu, depending on our ambitions) of our Keltner analysis of the nominees (we've only done the Beastie Boys and Donna Summer), for a second straight year I'm going to put it up for a preliminary vote.

Here goes. Cast your votes via this Doodle link -- vote for as many or as few artists as you wish, and we'll see how the numbers shake out.  (Typically, artists require 50%+ support to be nominated and the top 5-7 get in, unless Jann Wenner decides otherwise.)

First-time nominees include Heart, Joan Jett & the Blackhearts, The Cure, The Spinners, Eric B. & Rakim, Guns N' Roses, the Small Faces/Faces, Rufus with Chaka Khan, and Freddie King. The Beasties and Chilis return to the ballot, as do Donna Summer, Donovan, Laura Nyro, and War.

[First-time eligibles this year but not nominated include Crowded House, Guided by Voices, the Jayhawks, Lyle Lovett, Salt N Pepa, Soundgarden, They Might Be Giants, and Yo La Tengo.]

Vote early, defend your choices here, and rock on.

DON'T FORGET, MY SON, TO INCLUDE EVERYONE: The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame has announced its finalists for potential induction in 2009:

Metallica, Run-DMC, Little Anthony and the Imperials, Chic, Iggy and the Stooges, Jeff Beck, War, Wanda Jackson, and Bobby Womack.

First-time eligibles not nominated included Bon Jovi, the Smiths, Cyndi Lauper, Queensrÿche, and Howard Jones; still waiting for their call from the Veterans' Committee are Rush, Genesis/Peter Gabriel/Phil Collins, the Beastie Boys, Duran Duran, the Replacements, the Cougar (he's in -- oops!), The Cure/Depeche Mode/New Order, Cheap Trick, Journey, KISS and Richard Thompson ... among many others.

Top five vote-getters will be inducted. I've linked to our Keltner analyses previously performed, and we'll try to cover many of the others in the coming weeks.

TEN LANDS OF WILSON PICKETT DANCES, OR ONE STANDARD UNIT OF MANIACS: This post is the 10,000th post in the history of this site. (In terms of metric posts, we passed this mark some time ago, of course.) Yay, us!

To commemorate, I asked each of my co-bloggers to suggest a post or two which they found noteworthy in some way.

Alex noted this post which led to this follow-up. "Basically," he writes, "Because of this blog I started watching Amazing Race, which led to me randomly Googling the contestants in Season 5, which led to me discovering eventual winner Chip McCallister's unpublicized past as an actor, which led to me landing a clip in small, but at least to me significant clip in Entertainment Weekly, one of my longtime favorite publications."

Bob highlights this 2007 post on "music, baseball and family," with an honorable mention for his first Keltner List piece, which predates his formal addition to the roster here.

We nominated Isaac's by acclaim -- antitrust theory as explained by an episode of Friends, and his Lost previews known as Craphole Island Inventory (season two), We Must Never Speak Of This Again (season 3) and The Oceanic Six Speak (season five).

Kim is glad to have learned how to cook fiddlehead ferns. She is also glad that celebrities continue to give their children stupid names.

Kingsley checked in from the Ministry to force everyone to say Doodle von Taintstain one more time.

Matt enjoyed the math of "Seasons of Love" and your suggestions on titles for academic pieces on pop culture.

Phil suggested a bunch, and I do love the thing with the squid, the 4-1-06 piece on corporate adoption, his Pinter eulogy and SLAYER!.

The Pathetic Earthling says: The posts of which I have been most proud were those of last summer's Summer Cocktail Series, since we got to tap the rich vein of our commentariat for something fun and pointless -- the essential reason I love this blog. It's fun and pointless. You can revisit the cocktail series here (Dark and Stormy), here (the Combo Mah!), here (Maggie's Dad's Margaritas), here (Beer, served just so), here (Gins and Tonic), here (I Do Not Drink Beer), here (Pimm's Cup), and here (Improper Mint Julip). Cheers, all. And thanks.

And I was only going to cite 2003's Shaq v Nietzsche, but right above it is also my defense of Paul Verhoeven, and below is, well, you'll enjoy the picture at least. My Before The Law makes little sense now that the links are dead, but all our American Film Institute list-critiquing remains fresh. (I also need to note Shonda's crush on Samir Patel.) And I still believe in the audacity of Phillies hope.

Thanks for sticking around so far. We'll try to make the next 10,000 better.