IT'S KELTNER SEASON:Your nominees for this year's Rock Hall of Fame class:

• Pearl Jam
• Tupac Shakur
• Depeche Mode
• ELO
• Jane's Addiction
• Janet Jackson
• Journey 
• The Cars
• The Zombies
• Yes
• Bad Brains
• Chaka Khan
• Chic
• J. Geils Band
• Joan Baez
• Joe Tex 
• Kraftwerk
• MC5
• Steppenwolf

Pearl Jam and Tupac seem like cinches for first ballot induction, but the rest of that class seems pretty uninspiring to me.  Eligible this year for the first time, but not finalists?  Boyz II Men,  Alanis Morissette, PJ Harvey, and Tori Amos.  (Next year's eligibles include two seeming first ballot cinches--Radiohead and Beck.)

STRAIGHT OUTTA KELTNER:  Your 15 finalists for Rock Hall of Fame this year are:

• Chicago
• Cheap Trick
• Deep Purple
• The Cars
• Janet Jackson 
• N.W.A. (3rd nomination)
• Nine Inch Nails (2nd nomination)
• Yes
• Chic (10th nomination)
• The JB's
• Chaka Khan
• Los Lobos
• Steve Miller
• The Smiths
• The Spinners

Who ya got? I suspect Janet Jackson is the only absolute lock in that bunch.

"AT THE COUNT OF 3," HE SAYS, "I HOPE I CAN DISAPPEAR":  Current results from your Rock Hall voting, while not producing any OMG Of Course universally-agreed-upon inductees, still show some patterns:

Yes, You Must Induct
Lou Reed (35/43 votes)
N.W.A. (33)

Significant Support
Nine Inch Nails (28)
Green Day (25)
The Smiths (25)
Stevie Ray Vaughan (24)

They've Got Their Adherents
Joan Jett & the Blackhearts (18)
Kraftwerk (17)

And the Also Receiving Consideration crew: Chic (5), Sting (4), The Spinners (2), Paul Butterfield Blues Band (2), The Marvelettes (1), War (1), Bill Withers (1).

I'm pretty sure that everyone in those top two groups eventually gets in, except for The Smiths, insofar as this is an America-based institution and they've never even had a top-50 album here and commercial impact has to matter some. (In general, of course, the Hall has big problem in not finding a way to recognize influential-but-not-commercial acts of the post-Founding era.)

I will try to work up a Keltner or two in the coming weeks, especially since I'm a little surprised that Nine Inch Nails didn't place a little higher. Intuitively, their (well, his) case is really strong to me; I'd like to see if it holds up under analysis.

HE'S THE ONE WHO LIKES ALL OUR PRETTY SONGS:  The results of our Doodle poll on the 2014 nominees to the Non-Country Popular Music of the 1950s and Beyond Hall of Fame are not tremendously surprising -- almost unanimous support for Nirvana (52/54 votes, 96.2%); strong but not filibuster-defeating support for N.W.A. (32), Peter Gabriel (31), Hall and Oates (29), and Linda Ronstadt (25); decent support for The Replacements (17, too low!) and Yes (15) and not much for anyone else, though no one went home empty-handed.

In the coming weeks, the editors of this blog will work up some Keltner analyses on the nominees we haven't yet handled. I don't think much of the Peter Gabriel case, so maybe that's the one I ought to try to examine objectively, while I'd be total fanboy on Hall and Oates regardless my qualms over the video for "Out of Touch."  Meanwhile, go ahead and defend your ballot.

THEN AGAIN, THERE'S THE $75M+ WHICH THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND AND PROVIDENCE PLANTATIONS WOULD LIKE TO HAVE BACK:  WEEI's Kirk Minihane puts Curt Schilling's HOF candidacy through the Keltner Test. Stats here; he fell shy of 60% when we surveyed this year's candidates last month.

MAMA SAYS SHE'S WORRIED/GROWING UP IN A HURRY, YEAH: With Heart's nomination to the Hall of Fame, you really have to ask yourself which Heart you're talking about.  Because there were two Hearts (and maybe three):  pre-1980s Heart, who made classic rock and roll music and sold a decent amount of records; 1980s-and-later Heart, who cranked out a string of hugely popular bland power ballads; and, maybe, if you are charitable, Lovemongers-era Heart, mentors to a Seattle music scene of which they were really not a part.  It's not just that you have to consider the three key criteria for HOF induction, quality, popularity, and influence; it is that you have to evaluate each of those criteria for each period of the band's history.  Most bands have a peak and a decline.  Heart has different peaks for each of the different criteria.  They're a weird case.  Keltner (explanation) me! 

1.  Was Heart ever regarded as the best band in rock music?  Did anybody, while they were active, ever suggest that Heart was the best band in rock music? 

I doubt it.  In the early period, I'd guess that 90% of the people who were fans of Heart, including every member of Heart, would have said they liked Led Zeppelin better.  Later, I think people would say their popularity was broader than it was deep. 

2.  Was Heart ever the best band in rock music in its genre? 

No.  I won't even bother to explain myself unless somebody shows up to say that they honestly believe that at some point (please identify the point), Heart was the best band in its genre.  Honest opinions only, please; no straw men. 

3.  Was any individual member of Heart ever considered the best at his instrument/role? 

SOME STUPID WITH A FLARE GUN: It surprises me, it really does, that Deep Purple received only 14 out of 50 votes in our Rock and Roll Hall of Fame poll.  Are we that young, or that far separated from our collective memories of the early 1970s, or that nostalgic for the soft rock and disco that folks these days seem to think epitomized that era?  Luckily, we at ALOTT5MA have our Keltners (explanation) to tell us how to vote, and so Keltner we will: 

1.  Was Deep Purple ever regarded as the best band in rock music?  Did anybody, while they were active, ever suggest that Deep Purple was the best band in rock music? 

There probably was a non-trivial portion of rock fandom (more in England and Europe than in America) in the early 1970s that thought so, and an even larger population that would have put them at among the best bands in rock music. 

2.  Was Deep Purple ever the best band in rock music in its genre? 

No, because at its peak, Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath also were in its genre.  It is fair to say that in the heyday of Deep Purple's genre (arena-oriented hard rock/nascent heavy metal), Deep Purple was the best band not already in the HOF. 

3.  Was any individual member of Deep Purple ever considered the best at his instrument/role? 

I GOT SO MUCH TROUBLE ON MY MIND / I REFUSE TO LOSE:  Rev up your Keltner lists, because the fifteen nominees vying for induction into the Rock and Roll Non-Country Popular Music of the 1950s and Beyond Hall of Fame include first-time nominees Deep Purple and, yes, Rush; rap legends N.W.A. and Public Enemy; the RRHOF's equivalent of Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven in Donna Summer and Chic; plus The Paul Butterfield Blues Band, Heart, Joan Jett and the Blackhearts, Albert King, Kraftwerk, The Marvelettes, The Meters, Randy Newman, and Procol Harum.

So let's do a Doodle poll again. Vote for as many or as few artists as you wish, and we'll see how the numbers shake out. (Typically, artists require 50%+ support to be nominated and the top 5-7 get in, unless Jann Wenner decides otherwise.)

[Among those not nominated: first-time eligibles The Pixies, as well as Stevie Ray Vaughan, KISS, and The Spinners.]

IF THE REAL THING DON'T DO THE TRICK, YOU BETTER MAKE UP SOMETHING QUICK:  Nominees for the 2012 class of inductees into the Rock and Roll Non-Country Popular Music of the 1950s and Beyond Hall of Fame have been announced, and in advance (or in lieu, depending on our ambitions) of our Keltner analysis of the nominees (we've only done the Beastie Boys and Donna Summer), for a second straight year I'm going to put it up for a preliminary vote.

Here goes. Cast your votes via this Doodle link -- vote for as many or as few artists as you wish, and we'll see how the numbers shake out.  (Typically, artists require 50%+ support to be nominated and the top 5-7 get in, unless Jann Wenner decides otherwise.)

First-time nominees include Heart, Joan Jett & the Blackhearts, The Cure, The Spinners, Eric B. & Rakim, Guns N' Roses, the Small Faces/Faces, Rufus with Chaka Khan, and Freddie King. The Beasties and Chilis return to the ballot, as do Donna Summer, Donovan, Laura Nyro, and War.

[First-time eligibles this year but not nominated include Crowded House, Guided by Voices, the Jayhawks, Lyle Lovett, Salt N Pepa, Soundgarden, They Might Be Giants, and Yo La Tengo.]

Vote early, defend your choices here, and rock on.

SOMETHING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO CLEVELAND: Having previously Keltner-ized Phil Collins, I suppose it falls to me to ask whether his announcement that he's going to retire from music to (and I'm not making this up) focus on a book about his extensive collection of artifacts from the Battle of the Alamo strengthens or weakens his case for induction.

NO ... HE'S NOT QUITE HALFWAY THERE .... (NO-OH! SHOULDN'T HAVE A PRAYER!):  While voting remains open, the trends have been pretty consistent.  Based on 63 voters, and with the RRHOF generally requiring 50% support to induct the top 5-7 names, the ALOTT5MA readership would only induct the Beastie Boys (57), Tom Waits (49) and Neil Diamond (42).  Bon Jovi (31) falls just shy of 50% with LL Cool J (22) and Alice Cooper (20) respectably thereafter, and no other artist has more than 20% support.

We'll be doing some more Keltner pieces over the next few weeks -- I'll take on Jewish Elvis, and there's been a request for the not-short-listed Hall and Oates. But if you voted for Donna Summer (11), Darlene Love (10), Dr. John (8), Chic (5), Donovan (5), The J. Geils Band (5), Laura Nyro (5), Joe Tex (3) or Chuck Willis (1), you've got a perfect opportunity now to convince us why you're right and we're philistines.

I'VE BEEN INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT NEVER WOULD:  Nominees for the 2011 class of inductees into the Rock and Roll Non-Country Popular Music of the 1950s and Beyond Hall of Fame have been announced, and in advance (or in lieu, depending on our ambitions) of our Keltner analysis of the nominees (we've already done the Beastie Boys, Bon Jovi, Chic and Donna Summer), why not just put it up for a preliminary vote?

So I have.  Cast your votes via this Doodle link -- vote for as many or as few artists as you wish, and we'll see how the numbers shake out.  (Typically, artists require 50%+ support to be nominated and the top 5-7 get in, unless Jann Wenner decides otherwise.)

Defend your reasoning here -- do the Beastie Boys get in because of their whiteness, in spite of it or both?  Does the massive popularity of Bon Jovi and Neil Diamond work for them or against them?  Is it moral to vote for anyone so long as [Rush/The Replacements/Red Hot Chili Peppers] isn't on the ballot? Cast your vote(s), and rock on.

TEN LANDS OF WILSON PICKETT DANCES, OR ONE STANDARD UNIT OF MANIACS: This post is the 10,000th post in the history of this site. (In terms of metric posts, we passed this mark some time ago, of course.) Yay, us!

To commemorate, I asked each of my co-bloggers to suggest a post or two which they found noteworthy in some way.

Alex noted this post which led to this follow-up. "Basically," he writes, "Because of this blog I started watching Amazing Race, which led to me randomly Googling the contestants in Season 5, which led to me discovering eventual winner Chip McCallister's unpublicized past as an actor, which led to me landing a clip in small, but at least to me significant clip in Entertainment Weekly, one of my longtime favorite publications."

Bob highlights this 2007 post on "music, baseball and family," with an honorable mention for his first Keltner List piece, which predates his formal addition to the roster here.

We nominated Isaac's by acclaim -- antitrust theory as explained by an episode of Friends, and his Lost previews known as Craphole Island Inventory (season two), We Must Never Speak Of This Again (season 3) and The Oceanic Six Speak (season five).

Kim is glad to have learned how to cook fiddlehead ferns. She is also glad that celebrities continue to give their children stupid names.

Kingsley checked in from the Ministry to force everyone to say Doodle von Taintstain one more time.

Matt enjoyed the math of "Seasons of Love" and your suggestions on titles for academic pieces on pop culture.

Phil suggested a bunch, and I do love the thing with the squid, the 4-1-06 piece on corporate adoption, his Pinter eulogy and SLAYER!.

The Pathetic Earthling says: The posts of which I have been most proud were those of last summer's Summer Cocktail Series, since we got to tap the rich vein of our commentariat for something fun and pointless -- the essential reason I love this blog. It's fun and pointless. You can revisit the cocktail series here (Dark and Stormy), here (the Combo Mah!), here (Maggie's Dad's Margaritas), here (Beer, served just so), here (Gins and Tonic), here (I Do Not Drink Beer), here (Pimm's Cup), and here (Improper Mint Julip). Cheers, all. And thanks.

And I was only going to cite 2003's Shaq v Nietzsche, but right above it is also my defense of Paul Verhoeven, and below is, well, you'll enjoy the picture at least. My Before The Law makes little sense now that the links are dead, but all our American Film Institute list-critiquing remains fresh. (I also need to note Shonda's crush on Samir Patel.) And I still believe in the audacity of Phillies hope.

Thanks for sticking around so far. We'll try to make the next 10,000 better.

F. SCOTT FITZGERALD WAS WRONG: F. Scott Fitzgerald once famously declared that "there are no second acts in American lives." Mr. Fitzgerald, allow me to introduce you to Mr. Curtis Montague Schilling, an American man of modest accomplishments through the age of 30, who turned out to have an extraordinary second act.

(quick conflict of interest disclosure: I contributed an essay to a book called Win it For, for which Schilling wrote the forward. My aunt has had fairly modest business dealings with Curt Schilling and his wife Shonda. Finally, I am both a Red Sox fan and a fan of Schilling's. I have sought to be even-handed in the analysis below.)

Schilling, a gifted player of what is perhaps our most American of games, announced his retirement yesterday in an uncommonly eloquent and moving essay on his blog:

"Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”

I used to wait with bated breath for Don Meredith to start singing that on Monday night football. Normally it was sweet music if the Steelers were playing.

If I could get him to sing it again I would. This party has officially ended. After being blessed to experience 23 years of playing professional baseball in front of the world's best fans in so many different places, it is with zero regrets that I am making my retirement official.

To say I've been blessed would be like calling Refrigerator Perry 'a bit overweight'. The things I was allowed to experience, the people I was able to call friends, teammates, mentors, coaches and opponents, the travel, all of it, are far more than anything I ever thought possible in my lifetime.

Four World Series, three World Championships. That there are men with plaques in Cooperstown who never experienced one, and I was able to be on three teams over seven years that won it all is another 'beyond my wildest dreams' set of memories I'll be allowed to take with me.

On the day that Curt Schilling turned 30, he had a 52-52 career record. His most similar pitchers from ages 27-29 were Ken Forsch (114 career wins), Ron Robinson (48), and Marty Pattin (114). He was mediocre and on the road to nowhere.

Since turning 30? 164 wins, 94 losses. Plus some of the most dramatic moments in baseball history (see below).

Schilling has often said the pivotal moment in his career came when Roger Clemens read him the riot act during a chance meeting at the Astrodome in the early 1990s. (Query: what sort of advice might Clemens have offered Schilling had they met a half-dozen years later?)

Esteemed baseball writer Rob Neyer offered his views on whether Schilling is a Hall of Famer? His answer:

Of course he is.

It's not his 216 career wins. It's not his .597 career winning percentage. It's not his 11-2 record in postseason games, or his 2.23 ERA. It's not even the bloody sock.

It's all of those things.

[snip]

Two years I was lukewarm about Schilling's Hall of Fame candidacy. I wasn't against it, exactly. But neither was I for it. But during those two years, Schilling helped pitch the Red Sox to another championship and I got just a little bit smarter. Today I can't imagine a Hall of Fame without him.

Here at A List of Things Thrown Together Five Minutes Ago, we do not need to rely solely upon the opinions of sportswriters for we have become experienced at using a tool known as the Keltner list.

The Keltner list is a systematic method created by famed baseball analyst Bill James to consider whether a baseball player deserves to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. The Keltner list is not designed to yield an binary answer about a player's worthiness, but is instead intended to shed some light on how strong a showing a player can make in 15 areas. As James wrote, "you can't total up the score and say that everybody who is at eight or above should be in, or anything like that." The list originally appeared in James' 1985 Baseball Abstract together with the anecdote of how he developed the Keltner list.

With no further ado, here is my take on how Schilling fares on the Keltner list:

1. Was Schilling ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

The answer is no, but it is perhaps a little closer than you might expect. Unusually for a pitcher, he finished in the top 14 in the MVP voting 4 times.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

A close call. He may well have been the best player on the 1992 Phillies, although Darren Daulton and John Kruk would be strong contenders as well. He appears to have been the best player on the 1997 Phillies, although that team was not especially strong. He was the second best player on the 2002 Diamondbacks, although the top player on that team was Randy Johnson, who had an extraordinarily good season that year. On the World Champion 2004 Red Sox, Schilling and Manny Ramirez were of roughly equal value, although Ramirez fared better in the MVP voting.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Again a close call, but I think you would have to say no to both questions. He finished second three times in the Cy Young voting. In two of those cases, he lost to a pitcher having an extraordinary season (Johnson in 2002, Santana in 2004). He also finished 4th in the Cy Young voting once.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Emphatically yes! Let me toss out four numbers: 1993, 2002, 2004, and 2007. I could fill ten pages on this subject.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. At age 37, he finished second in the Cy Young award balloting and was the best or second best player on a World Series Champion. At age 39, he had an ERA+ of 122 (10th best in the AL). At age 40, he had an ERA+ of 120 (just outside the top ten). He was the 7th oldest player in MLB that year.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. There must be 5 or more players ahead of him.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Possibly the most interesting question among the 15. There are a lot of ways to go about answering this.

Let me start with the big picture. Baseball-reference.com sets forth 4 HOF tests that are designed to evaluate if a player belongs in the HOF. Each test is calculated slightly differently. Under the "Black Ink" test, Schilling scores 42 (34th best among all pitchers). The average HOFer scores about 40 on this test.

Under the "Gray Ink" test, Schilling scores 205, again 34th best among all pitchers (Average HOFer ≈ 185). Using the "HOF Standards" test Schilling scores 46.0 (48th best) (Average HOFer ≈ 50). Applying the "HOF Monitor" test, Schilling scores 171.0, 33rd best among all pitchers (Likely HOFer > 100). Thus, on 3 of the 4 most commonly accepted tests, Schilling exceeds the HOF standard and on the 4th test he is fairly close to the score for the average HOF member. I think on the basis of these "big picture" tests, you would have to say yes with respect to question 7.

Schilling has many other impressive statistics and a few that are not so impressive. He finished in the top ten in ERA 9 times, a very impressive showing. He led the league in strikeouts twice and finished among the top ten in the league a total of 9 times, another impressive feat. With 3,116 career strikeouts, he ranks 16th all-time, a very impressive accomplishment (every eligible pitcher with 3,000 or more strikeouts is in the HOF, except, inexplicably, Bert Blyleven).

On the other hand, Schilling won "only" 216 games, which is quite low for HOF pitchers. As noted here, there are two main reasons why Schilling did not accumulate a larger number of wins, and the second should be seen as a point in his favor.

First, he found success relatively late, in part due to injury, but also because of a somewhat reckless youth.

Second, common sense suggests he cost himself at least one season of his career, and perhaps more, by pitching through his gruesome injury during the 2004 postseason. Curt sacrificed some of his career statistics to help the Red Sox win the team's first World Series in 86 years. Let's just say that I am happy he did what he did.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

See #7. I would give Schilling a yes vote on #8, but reasonable minds could differ.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Yes, in Schilling's favor. His postseason record is equal to or better than that of any pitcher in MLB history. Curt won 11 of 19 playoff starts while losing just two. His ERA was 2.23, and his WHIP an amazing 0.97. He struck out 120 batters in 133.1 innings, while allowing just 104 hits. He walked just 25. When you faced Schilling in a crucial game, you went into it with a pretty good idea that you weren't going to defeat him, and he sure as hell wasn't going to defeat himself.

If you don't put arguably the most accomplished postseason pitcher of any era in Cooperstown, then what's the point of even having the place?

Anyone who has read this far probably knows the story about Curt's bloody sock.

As Bill Simmons put it:

The Schilling Game takes its place alongside the Willis Reed Game, MJ's Flu Game, Bird banging his head against the Pacers and everything else in the Sheer Guts Pantheon.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

No. I am going to ignore the word "eligible" in the foregoing question because Schilling himself is not yet eligible. Among the pitchers who are eligible or who have had quite substantial careers already, Schilling ranks behind several, including Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Schilling was never really a serious MVP candidate. As noted above, he finished second three times in the Cy Young voting. In two of those cases, he lost to a pitcher having an extraordinary season (Johnson in 2002, Santana in 2004). He also finished 4th in the Cy Young voting once.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

Schilling was on the All-Star team 6 times, although he did not play in all of the games for which he was selected. I do not know how this compares to other HOF pitchers.

The phrase "All-Star-type seasons" is a little vague. He had ten seasons with an ERA+ over 133. In most years, that would rank between 5th best and 10th best in a league, which seems like a reasonable approximation of what it means to have an All-Star-type season.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Not sure how to answer this one. On the one hand, this was arguably the case in 2004, when Schilling was a contender for the best player on the Red Sox and the Red Sox won the WS. That being said, I am having trouble with the phrase "would it be likely that the team could win the pennant." I think a typical peak Curt Schilling season could lead a team to win the pennant, but I think he would need a solid supporting cast to make that better than a 50/50 proposition.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

I don't think the clever use of orthopedic devices really amounts to all that much.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Emphatically yes. Schilling is a very strong supporter of care for ALS sufferers. His organization, Curt's Pitch for ALS, allows fans and organizations to sponsor him, donating to the ALS Association for every strikeout he throws.

I think the bloody sock speaks volumes about character and sportsmanship as well.

* * * * * * * *

Schilling is not a slam dunk for the HOF. I think he deserves a positive answer on many of the Keltner questions, but by no means on all of them. For what I think is a balanced but somewhat skeptical view on the subject see Tony Massarotti's story.

I suspect that Schilling will be enshrined, but not in his first year of eligibility.

ANALOGIES: CHUCK BERRY:R&RHOF AS BABE RUTH:BHOF: In our recent discussions about the inductees to the Baseball Hall of Fame and to the Rock and Roll Hall Of Fame, from time to time we make analogies regarding how, for example, a music star compares to a baseball star. And, in fact, our earliest analysis of whether artists belong in the R&RHOF was based upon the Keltner list derived by Bill James to determine whether baseball players belong in the BHOF.

Now comes the "One Poor Correspondent" blog to take this a step further with an illuminating post noting 7 such analogies, focusing primarily on recent inductees to the two Halls. Neither Adam nor I feel the Metallica analogy in the post is quite apt. Adam suggests that Metallica is analogous to Mariano Rivera.

Feel free to make your own pairs. This post lists what its author feels are the 25 Most Deserving Non-Inductees to the R&RHOF. Perhaps one of them is the "Bert Blylven" or "Tim Raines" of rock music.

Here are lists of the members of the Baseball HOF and the R&RHOF.

ADULT ENTERTAINER, CHILD EDUCATOR, AND THE KING OF THE CROSS-FADER: The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame will induct this year Metallica, Run-DMC, Little Anthony and the Imperials, Bobby Womack and Jeff Beck (the Mark Langston of the RRHoF) with Wanda Jackson entering as an early influencer. Missing the cut among the finalists were Chic, Iggy and the Stooges, and War. Says DMC:

I'm a rap dude, I'm an MC from Hollis, just rockin' the mic, and to be in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, with the Beatles, and (Bob) Dylan, and the rock 'n' roll gods? It's ridiculous! Ridiculous in a good way.

[I recognize that I still haven't done the Keltner analysis on Run-DMC, but, seriously, is this a question? Once you determine that rappers are eligible for the Hall, Run-DMC is inner sanctum first ballot.]

PLEASE DO HIM WRONG. PLEASE CAST HIM OFF DISCOURTEOUSLY: It's Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Keltner season, and at some point in the near future recent past Adam is going to point out that, other than (depending upon your personal preference) Chic, Bon Jovi, and Metallica, all of whom we Keltnerized last year, and one additional first-ballot addition, this is a crappy class. Adam volunteered me to Keltnerize nominee Jeff Beck, but I'm not going to do it. You don't need a Keltner analysis to tell you that Mark Langston doesn't make the cut for the baseball Hall of Fame, and Jeff Beck isn't getting one just because he was an early adopter of standing too close to the amp while playing. He's boring. End of story.

I will, however, recite for you the following facts (in small part aided by Wikipedia, I feel impelled to admit), which collectively represent all you really need to know about Jeff Beck:

• Served 18 months of bridge duty between Eric Clapton and Jimmy Page in the band that eventually collapsed and became Led Zeppelin.
• Clearly inspired Nigel Tufnel's haircut and wardrobe, and possibly Tufnel's childish petulance, in Spinal Tap.
• Was unable to create a hit single in two albums with a young Rod Stewart (though he and Stewart much later had a hit with a bastardization of the Impressions' sublime "People Get Ready").
• Jointly responsible for revitalizing the bloated charity benefit when he, Page, Clapton, Stewart, and Ron Wood staged the Rock for ARMS (Action for Research into Multiple Sclerosis) concert to benefit Ronnie Lane, which in turn prompted a delusional Neil Schon to muse that the 1980s equivalent of Clapton/Page/Beck was Schon/Santana/Van Halen.
• Contributed to annoying pomp-rock fetishization of "Greensleeves," the sixteenth-century version of "Hey Ya."
• Gave Carmine Appice his first high-profile job (unless you consider Cactus high-profile), thus inadvertently unleashing the Terrible Reign of the Ruggedly Handsome Drum-Pounding Appices.
• The first song on his first solo album was a cover of a two-year-old song by his former band, which he didn't write.
• Was a dick. Reportedly.

DON'T FORGET, MY SON, TO INCLUDE EVERYONE: The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame has announced its finalists for potential induction in 2009:

Metallica, Run-DMC, Little Anthony and the Imperials, Chic, Iggy and the Stooges, Jeff Beck, War, Wanda Jackson, and Bobby Womack.

First-time eligibles not nominated included Bon Jovi, the Smiths, Cyndi Lauper, Queensrÿche, and Howard Jones; still waiting for their call from the Veterans' Committee are Rush, Genesis/Peter Gabriel/Phil Collins, the Beastie Boys, Duran Duran, the Replacements, the Cougar (he's in -- oops!), The Cure/Depeche Mode/New Order, Cheap Trick, Journey, KISS and Richard Thompson ... among many others.

Top five vote-getters will be inducted. I've linked to our Keltner analyses previously performed, and we'll try to cover many of the others in the coming weeks.

HERE'S A LITTLE STORY I'VE GOT TO TELL ABOUT THREE BAD BROTHERS YOU KNOW SO WELL: The Beastie Boys were denied induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame this year, their first year of eligibility. Did the grandees of Cleveland get it right?

Let's start with a definitional question: with the induction of Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five in 2007, and the placement of the Beastie Boys on the ballot, the Rock Hall braintrust has determined that hip hop artists are within their definition of "rock"; to use Isaac's analogy from long ago, rappers are second basemen and not soccer players.

The Beastie Boys' recording career formally started twenty-five years ago as a punk band; it wasn't until the 1986 release of LICENSED TO ILL that their existence as we now know it really began, and with that, let's run the Keltner Test:

1. Were the Beastie Boys ever regarded as the best artists in rock music? Did anybody, while they were active, ever suggest that the Beastie Boys were the best artists in rock music?

2. Were the Beastie Boys ever the best artist in rock music in their genre?

First, obvs, they're still active, and while the answer to the second question is unquestionably yes around the time of PAUL'S BOUTIQUE (Rolling Stone called it "the Pet Sounds/Dark Side of the Moon of hip hop," Robert Christgau's 1986 review of LICENSED TO ILL suggests the first might be true as well:

The wisecracking arrogance of this record is the only rock and roll attitude that means diddley right now. With the mainstream claimed by sincere craftspeople and the great tradition of Elvis Presley, Esquerita, Creedence Clearwater Revival, the Sex Pistols, and Madonna sucked into a cultural vacuum by nitwit anarchists and bohemian sourpusses, three white jerkoffs and their crazed producer are set to go platinum-plus with "black" music that's radically original, childishly simple, hard to play, and accessible to anybody with two ears and an ass. Drinking, robbing, rhyming, and pillaging, busting open your locker and breaking your glasses, the Beasites don't just thumb their noses at redeeming social importance--they pull out their jammies and shoot it in the cookie puss. If you don't like the joke, you might as well put your money where your funnybone is and send a check to the PMRC. A+

And it was a joke. As Michael Diamond (Mike D) said years later, "The only thing that upsets me is that we might have reinforced certain values of some people in our audience when our own values were actually totally different. There were tons of guys singing along to [Fight For Your Right] who were oblivious to the fact it was a total goof on them. Irony is oft missed."

[1986 was a great year for music -- the only albums to top the Beasties on the Pazz and Jop survey were GRACELAND, THE COSTELLO SHOW, Springsteen's live discs and RAISING HELL. Just past those? SO, LIFE'S RICH PAGEANT and CONTROL.]

In 1998 (HELLO NASTY),the band was named by Rolling Stone as Artists of the Year by the critics and the readers, Best Album by the readers, Best Hip Hop Artist by the readers, Best Single by the readers, and named Band of the Year by Spin.

3. Was the Beastie Boys ever considered the best at their instrument/role?

As rhymers and samplists, yes. Chuck D of Public Enemy was quoted as saying that the "dirty secret" among the black hip-hop community at the time of release was that "Paul's Boutique had the best beats." Indeed, here's the samples for "The Sounds of Science" (fantastic fan video) alone:

• "Back in the U.S.S.R" by the Beatles
• "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band" (crowd noise) by The Beatles
• "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band (Reprise)" by The Beatles (drums, orchestra tuning, violins)
• "When I'm Sixty-Four" by The Beatles (oboe)
• "The End" by The Beatles (scratching)
• "Walk from Regio's" by Isaac Hayes
• "Don't Sniff Coke" by Pato Banton (the I do not sniff the coke I only smoke the sensimilla insert)
  
• "Get Up, Get Into It, Get Involved" by James Brown
• "My Philosophy" by Boogie Down Productions ("Right up to your face and diss you)

And as rhymers, well, let's try this, from "Shadrach" (a great video too):

Stealin' from the rich and I'm out robbing banks
Givin' to the poor and I always give thanks
Because I've got more stories that J.D.'s got Salingers
I hold the title and you are the challenger
I've got money like Charles Dickens
I've got the girlies in the coupe like the Colonel's got the chickens
And I always go out dapper like Harry S. Truman
I'm madder than Mad's Alfred E. Newman

4. Did the Beastie Boys have an impact on a number of other bands?

They opened up the rap world to white artists, and for every Eminem, we had to suffer through 3rd Bass, House of Pain, Insane Clown Posse and Vanilla Ice. They also raised the bar in a positive way for the intricacy of sampling and wit that could be enjoyed in rap, and later albums furthered the rap/funk crossover movement -- but "Sabotage" and the like also led to rap-rock crap like Kid Rock, Korn, Linkin Park and Limp Biskit. So, "yes, but mostly negative."

5. Were the Beastie Boys good enough that they could play regularly after passing their prime?

Still headlining festivals globally.

6. Is the Beastie Boys the very best artist in history that is not in the Hall of Fame?

Did the Beastie Boys record "Enter Sandman"? Did they record "Werewolves of London," "The French Inhaler" and "Carmelita"? Then, no.

7. Are most bands who have a comparable recording history and impact in the Hall of Fame?

As far as cultural transgressors go, the Doors are in without having nearly the volume of work as the Beasties. As far as sales, they've had four #1 albums. There are lots of artists in the Hall without the two decades of solid production which the Beastie Boys have given us.

8. Is there any evidence to suggest that the Beastie Boys were significantly better or worse than is suggested by their statistical records?

When they were performing with women in cages and giant inflatable penises on their early tours, you'd hardly think that the Beastie Boys would ultimately be thought of as a critics' band more than a commercial band, but, yeah, they kind of are. Hits like "Sabotage" never broke through on the charts as much as they did in the general culture through videos.

9. Are the Beastie Boys the best artist in their genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Who is eligible? Yes. But Run-DMC is around the bend, and at that point, the answer will be no.

10. How many #1 singles/gold records did the Beastie Boys have? Did the Beastie Boys ever win a Grammy award? If not, how many times was the Beastie Boys nominated?

LICENSED TO ILL was the first rap album to hit #1 on the pop charts. Four #1 albums, just one top-10 single ("Fight For Your Right To Party"). Two Grammys for HELLO NASTY, a handful of other nominations in the "rap" and "alternative" categories.

11. How many Grammy-level songs/albums did the Beastie Boys have? For how long of a period did the Beastie Boys dominate the music scene? How many Rolling Stone covers did the Beastie Boys appear on? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

This list is incomplete, but it'll do: "Hold It, Now Hit It", "The New Style", "Paul Revere", "Brass Monkey", "(You Gotta) Fight for Your Right (To Party!)", "No Sleep Till Brooklyn", "Hey Ladies", "The Sounds of Science", "Egg Man", "Shake Your Rump", "Pass the Mic", "So What'cha Want", "Professor Booty", "Sabotage", "Sure Shot", "Intergalactic".

12. If the Beastie Boys was the best band at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

Hells yeah. Phil and I saw them at the UMass Spring Fling in 1992, after Phish, Fishbone, fIREHOSE and the Bosstones, and nothing energized the crowd like chanting "Ali Baba and the forty thieves!"

13. What impact did the Beastie Boys have on rock history? Were they responsible for any stylistic changes? Did they introduce any new equipment? Did they change history in any way?

LICENSED TO ILL changed music. It brought heavy metal riffs (and white people) into rap, excited thugs and ironists alike, and gave Rick Rubin the basis for a long, huge career. They also deserve some credit for their frequent use of obscure 1970s samples.

14. Did the band uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

The Tibetan stuff. General advocacy of progressive causes. Sure. All they've stolen are samples, though I can't say I have full confidence in the "we were just kidding on LICENSED TO ILL" talk given songs like "Girls".

Conclusion: Yes, they belong in, a trio that has stood the test of time with fun, smart, memorable music. When the question is asked "if hip hop artists belong in the Hall, who are the first five who get in?", the answer is these guys, Run-DMC, Grandmaster Flash, Public Enemy and LL Cool J.

As a matter of personal taste, though, their induction should be delayed until Run-DMC gets in first. It just would feel weird to have the Beastie Boys inducted at a point when they're still so young and vital; they do not need a gold watch anytime soon. But some day, three mc's (and one dj) will find their plaque in the Cleve where it belongs.

(Much help from Beastiemania.)

THIS TIME I KNOW IT’S FOR REAL. Donna Summer has been nominated this year for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Here is her “Keltner” analysis based upon the so-called “Keltner” list used to evaluate whether a given baseball player belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The “Keltner” list was developed by famous baseball analyst Bill James in his 1985 Bill James Baseball Abstract. Over the years we have adapted the questions on the list so they make more sense for musical artists (look here for our other“Keltner” musical assessments).

This time around I made a few changes to the questions to make them even more meaningful for musical artists. Also, in a few spots I changed the wording of the questions from “rock music” to “pop music” because the Hall is certainly not limited to “rock and roll” music.

1. Was Donna Summer ever regarded as the best artist in pop music? Did anybody, while she was active, ever suggest that Donna Summer was the best artist in pop music?

I think you would have to say no on this, but it’s a much closer call than you might expect. Donna Summer was among the top 2 or 3 pop music stars from 1977 through 1980, a period during which she had ten Top Ten hits, including four #1 hits and a #2.

This is as good a place as any to deal with a recurring yet tiresome question – is “disco” within the category of “rock and roll”? The answer is an emphatic yes. Let me quote rock critic Robert Christgau, as he wrote in 1978:

“Whatever other genre distinctions you want to make (and they're always fuzzy), it's a weird switch to act as if black music (whatever exactly that means) is not rock and roll. If Motown was rock and roll, then so are the O'Jays and Donna Summer; if Linda Ronstadt and Randy Newman are part of the tradition, then so are Natalie Cole and Gil Scott-Heron. Rock and roll is a direct descendant of rhythm and blues, and so are soul, funk, middle-class black pop, ... Philly-derived disco, reggae (less categorically), and jazz fusion and Eurodisco (less categorically still, since both are genuinely interracial styles with disparate forebears).”

Donna Summer is in fact much more than a disco artist. Her work has featured a fusion of disco, R&B, rock, inspirational, electronica, techno, and dance music. For example, her hit “Hot Stuff” is basically straightforward rock and roll.

Donna Summer’s 1979 album “Bad Girls” was #10 on the 1979 Village Voice “Pazz & Jop” Critics Poll, a remarkably high showing considering that at least as of the year before only 12 of the 98 participating critics focused on “black” music and only 2 of the 98 focused their efforts on disco. In 1980, critic Dave Marsh named Summer’s album “The Wanderer” as the second best album of the year behind only “The River” by Bruce Springsteen.

Last but not least, I swear that I once read an interview with Billy Joel in which he described Donna Summer as the best artist in pop music circa 1980, but I cannot find the quotation on the internet.

2. Was Donna Summer ever the best artist in her genre?

Possibly yes. Assuming we view the relevant genre as disco, then there are four other contenders worth considering: Earth Wind & Fire, the Bee Gees, Chic, and KC and the Sunshine Band. Earth Wind & Fire (who have been inducted into the Hall) had less success on the Top 40 than Summer did, but greater critical acclaim.

The Bee Gees had greater commercial success than Summer did (the Bee Gees are in the Hall). It’s a harder question for me to say if the Bee Gees were “better” than Donna Summer. I’d say that they were roughly equal in quality, but I happen to like Donna Summer more than I like the Bee Gees.

Donna Summer had more commercial success and a much longer career than Chic (also nominated this year) or KC and the Sunshine Band. I think Chic was perhaps better at its very peak, but Summer clearly had more “career value.” Summer is considerably more influential than KC and the Sunshine Band.

3. Was Donna Summer ever considered the best at her instrument/role?

No. Summer was certainly a talented vocalist, trained as a powerful gospel singer. I don’t think anyone ever suggested that she was the single most talented vocalist of her time, though.

4. Did Donna Summer have a noticeable influence on a number of other artists?

You betcha. According to David Bowie, her influence was recognized early on:

“One day in Berlin ... Eno came running in and said, 'I have heard the sound of the future.' … he puts on 'I Feel Love', by Donna Summer … He said, 'This is it; look no further. This single is going to change the sound of club music for the next fifteen years.' Which was more or less right.”

Donna Summer appears to have heavily influenced Janet Jackson, Madonna, Mariah Carey, and Beyoncé', among many other artists.

5. How long a career did Donna Summer have? Was she a good enough performer that she could continue to perform regularly after passing her prime?

She has had a very long career. Her first hit was in 1975, the infamous "Love to Love You, Baby." As recently as 1997, she won the Grammy for “Best Dance Recording” for her song “Carry On.” Summer placed a song on the Billboard Hot 100 every single year from 1977's "I Feel Love" to 1984's "There Goes My Baby".

She has been a good enough performer that she continued to perform regularly even after “the last days of disco.” She still continues to record and to perform.

6. Is Donna Summer the very best eligible artist in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. I would say that you’d have to put Madonna ahead of her. But I’d put Donna Summer on the short list of the most worthy contenders.

7. Are most performers with a comparable recording history and influence in the Hall of Fame?

Yes! For example, Earth Wind & Fire (who are in the Hall) had slightly less success on the pop charts than Summer did. I would say that Earth Wind & Fire is perhaps slightly less influential than Summer, but reasonable minds can differ on that topic.

See also #9 below, regarding Summer’s chart success. I have to believe that very few artists with twelve Top 10 hits and eleven gold or platinum albums are not in the Hall.

8. Is Donna Summer the best artist in her genre who is eligible for the Hall of Fame (and has not already been admitted)?

Yes. See #3 above.

9. How many songs of Donna Summer hit one or more of the major music charts? How many songs hit #1? How many of her albums went gold or platinum? Did Donna Summer ever win a Grammy award?

Summer has had twenty Top 40 hits. Twelve of those songs hit the Top 10, including four #1 hits, and two #2 smashes. Many of her other songs have hit the dance charts and the R&B charts.

Donna Summer has also had enormous success internationally, with over 40 songs charting in the UK, Germany, or Japan.

Eleven of her albums went gold or platinum, a particularly impressive total considering that many people think of disco as a genre focused on singles. Donna is the only artist to have three double-albums in a row go to number one on Billboard's album chart.

She has five Grammy awards in the R&B, Rock, Inspirational, and Dance categories. Donna Summer was the first African American woman to earn a Rock Grammy.

10. How long did Donna Summer dominate the music scene? Did most of the bands with this sort of impact go into the Hall of Fame?

She dominated the scene for about 3 or 4 years (roughly 1977-1980). Most bands that dominated the scene as Summer did are in the Hall.

11. Is there any evidence to suggest that Donna Summer’s influence or greatness is significantly more or less than what you can see just by counting Grammies and gold records?

Summer wrote or co-wrote most of her songs, which was not a common situation for disco artists. That being said, she was fortunate to hook up with gifted producers such as Giorgio Moroder and Pete Bellotte.

See also #4 above, regarding her influence on other artists, and #5 above, regarding her ability to succeed long after disco’s heyday had passed.

But more than anything else just think about her amazing hits:

• The synth-dance riff of “I Feel Love”
• The way that “Last Dance” moves your heart
• The power of “On the Radio”
• The joy of “This Time I Know It’s For Real”

12. If Donna Summer was the best performer at a concert, would it be likely that the concert would rock?

I have never heard her perform live, but I gather that she is a thrilling live performer. That being said, she never headlined an “arena” concert tour as far as I know.

13. What effect did Donna Summer have on pop music history? Was she responsible for any stylistic changes? Did she introduce any new equipment? Did she change history in any way?

As noted at #4 above, her song “I Feel Love” was very influential due to its innovative use of synthesizers.

14. Did she uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

This Boston-born woman has upheld the standards of sportsmanship and character. For example, Summer has played for AIDS benefits and has donated proceeds to AIDS research.

Several of her songs have been banned for being sexually suggestive, but, well, I’m certainly not going to hold that against her!

_________

Bottom line: Summer belongs in the Hall. This is not a close case.