TONIGHT, (DON'T) LET IT BE LOEWENSTERN:  What's noteworthy to me about tonight's Idol semifinals is what didn't change -- same lame backdrops and Muzak-leaning orchestrations, same Seacrest, same overall feeling that we're watching a variety show and not a legitimate search for the next contemporary pop superstar.  Same show, same type of songs and performances, only with different judges -- this was not the reinvention of Idol.

But what did change was mostly nice: fewer judges means more time for each to speak (Randy: critical! helpful!), and a 90 minute running time for twelve performers meant a briskly-paced, largely bullshit-free show.  Thanks, Nigel!  What I didn't like, though, was that immediately putting the performers on the big stage and not the comfier semifinals-in-the-round may have prevented some of them from finding their stagecraft sea legs, and some of them seemed a bit lost up there.  So, then, some initial tiers:

CRY, CRY BABY? [Did America get it right, yet again? To the comments.]

Revised and extended Thursday morning: Yeah, on a certain level -- the whole "justice" thing -- Allison Iraheta's ouster from Idol last night was deeply disappointing, as unjust and shocking as previous Final Four ousters of Tamyra Gray and Chris Daughtry. If anything, it's worse than Tamyra's, because her "New Attitude" did stink (but not nearly as bad as the Gokey Scream.)

But, at the same time, was she going to win this competition? Hard to imagine. I think both Adam and Kris are positioned to be top artists today; as noted in the Comments, Allison is a futures option that will likely pay off in 3-5 years, but not quite yet. I'd rather she had her breakthrough as Young Adult than Precocious Teen. Give her time, because the pipes are there and the personality is there.

In the meantime, I find myself faced with the problem that I don't really hate Hokey Gokey. I think he's got a really nice voice, and seems to be a decent fellow. I just don't think he belongs in a competition for the Next Pop Superstar, certainly not in its final three. Kris, on the other hand? I prefer Adam Lambert, but if Kris wins, he has totally earned it. Next week's "you choose, judge's choose" selections are going to be real interesting.

TRY, TRY, TRY AND YOU WILL ONLY COME ... TO THIS CONCLUSION: "Songs of the Rat Pack" week presents our Idol finalists with a massive, classic book of songs and -- unlike the chronologically similar "Big Band" week theme -- a wide range of opportunities to rethink and rearrange. Not that everything they've done is in bounds (see Rule #2 on too-fitting exit songs), mind you.

This programming note: Isaac's knee-deep in work, and had time to send in just one suggestion over the transom. We hope we'll have the full use of his talents again soon.

The Lambert
I believe in the possibility of Idol for massive cultural subversion, even though it never really comes to fruition. Still, what could be wrong with a clean-cut crooner like Adam Lambert singing "Love and Marriage"? It's not much of a singer's song -- though I have full faith in his efforts to make it one -- and who could disagree with his explaining that you can't have one without the other? Sonically, what he ought to be going for is what Bono did on "I've Got You Under My Skin". (Adam)

I’m torn between two thoughts for Adam. The first is “That’s Why the Lady is a Tramp,” which I think he’d kill, but which might tread a little too close to that line he hasn’t been treading too closely throughout the competition. The other one is “Rockabye Your Baby (with a Dixie Melody),” which could show a jazzy, bluesy side of Adam that I suspect is in there along with the Mick and the Croony McCroonerson. (If you’ve heard the Mandy Patinkin version, you’ll know there are puh-lenty of high notes for which the wail can be employed.) But please, please, we need some uptempo Adam this week. (Kim)

Kris
"One For My Baby" seems well-suited for his laid-back-but-passionate vibe. He's in a zone right now. (Adam)

Laid back but passionate is totally the way to go, I agree. Two songs: “Softly as I Leave You,” done Elvis-style, or even -- hey, guess what? – a stripped-down acoustic version of “Mr. Bojangles." I was listening to a clip of a relatively unorchestrated live performance, and even with the fact that I cannot listen to Sammy Davis Jr. without seeing Billy Crystal in my head, I was surprised by how lyrical and sweet the song could be. And we know how Kris loves a good story song. (Kim)

Hokey Gokey
I jokingly suggested "Ol Man River" to a friend for RDJJ, and he actually thought it could be a show-stopper, assuming he sang it sincerely enough. Beyond that, "You're Nobody 'Til Somebody Loves You" is something he could pull off effortlessly. And even with what I said last night, the truth is this week is his wheelhouse as much as Jamiroquai week would have been for Blake Lewis -- no one's going to fault him for hitting a single up the middle. (Adam)

Are we really trying to come up with creative suggestions for Hokey Mr. Gokey? I almost feel like it’s not worth the brain cells to spend a lot of time thinking of a good idea just so he can hop up on stage and sing “Amore.” In keeping with my double-teamed suggestions this week, Danny might do “Rockabye Your Baby” better than Adam – we know he’s got the bluesy thing well in hand. But why not just be a big hokey ball of cheese and do “New York New York.” (Kim)

Allison
Cat Power's cover of "New York New York" (Isaac)

Needs a show-stopper more than anyone else; history tells us that Tamyra Gray is the only contestant to have avoided the bottom three thus far in the competition and still missed making the final three, and we've got three guys in the competition who have been so unthreatened. She needs something unadorned, unflashy and earth-shattering -- listen to Annie Lennox singing "Ev'ry Time We Say Goodbye" and see if that's a start. Message-wise, Sammy Davis Jr's signature "I've Gotta Be Me" works for the show; I understand Ella Fitzgerald has covered it, but can't find it online anywhere. (Adam)

I’m not sure whether this is the week in which Allison can come up with a show-stopper. I agree with Adam as to what Allison needs to accomplish. Two thoughts as to how to get there: first, she needs to heed my prior advice to attend the Tyra Banks School for Aspiring Models and put on a pair of jeans and a black tank top, and pull her hair into a ponytail. Then she needs to sing something quiet but big. How about “Bewitched, Bothered and Bewildered”? But here’s another approach: if she wants to take a page from the Kelly Clarkson songbook, a wink-and-a-nod riff on “That’s Why the Lady Is a Tramp” (in a classy lady dress, not her customary trampy garb) could show some much needed personality at a much-needed time. (Of course, I’ve also suggested this one for Adam, but the two of them can duke it out.) (Kim)

Matt
I still have very little idea what he does particularly well, other than it's probably seated at a piano rather than standing, which is good for this week. Can he pull off "Some Enchanted Evening"? "Stardust"? (Adam)

Matt’s got to have a big confidence problem going into this week. Sure, he wasn’t in the bottom three last time, but the judges hate him every time he tries to do something remotely interesting. So what’s he supposed to do this week, when the name of the game really is “go out there and do something interesting”? I think he’s supposed to whip out the piano and do a real Matt Giraud last-call-at-the-piano-bar-balls-to-the-wall straight up Sinatra song. “Fly Me to the Moon” is one of the biggest, and I suspect he could do it well. It may not be innovative, but at least they’ll be putting tips in his jar asking him what he’s doing here. (Kim)

YOU WORK ALL YOUR LIFE FOR THAT MOMENT IN TIME, IT COULD COME OR PASS YOU BY; IT'S A PUSH OF THE WORLD, BUT THERE'S ALWAYS A CHANCE IF THE HUNGER STAYS THE NIGHT: Idol results are in, and I am livid.

So they protect someone who Simon acknowledged has no chance of winning, and instead give each competitor a 28% chance of going *next* week ... except we know that Adam and Hokey Gokey are safe, so it's really a 40% chance a that potential finalist in Allison or Kris will go (someone, correct my math?) while Matt himself is more likely to stay b/c of the rallying effect, though less likely because Disco is a bad theme week for him. What does that make the odds of neither Allison or Kris going home next week?

[Also, DialIdol is continually undercounting Kris' popularity. Any guess as to why?]

I've been asked, well, what about the tiers?, since we all "know" that it's Adam v. Hokey Gokey in the finals anyway, and this won't affect that conclusion in the slightest. Except we don't know that. At this point last year, we'd have all said YDA was beating Cook in the finals; the year before, we'd have had Blake over Melinda as the most likely outcome; and Daughtry over (Hicks or McPhee) in 2005, with the notion of Elliot being a deserving third place still seeming a bit odd. There is a lot of competition left to go and all we can be confident about is that Matt < (Allison or Kris), and either of them could realistically slip past Danny (or even Adam) into the finals, just as Tamyra, Daughtry and Melinda failed to make the finals. And now both are in real risk next week, and for what? So that Matt can make it past Anoop and Lil? Not worth the use of Idol Immunity.

The best sign that it's still Adam v. Danny is that neither have been bottom 3 year. Nor has Kris.

remarks revised & extended after initial teaser post.

I AM SHIVA THE DESTROYER, YOUR HARBINGER OF DOOM THIS EVENING: Rachel Getting Married combines so many of this blog's interests -- Tamyra Gray, proper dishwasher loading techniques, Elvis Stojko, people who should see In Her Shoes and, of course, Anne Hathaway -- that I'm surprised it took me until today to see it.

To merely call it "well-written" undersells just how perfectly and subtly Jenny Lumet's screenplay reveals this damaged family in all its pain and joy, and I cannot say enough about Hathaway's brittle, bitter, true performance. There's a shot -- when they're cutting the cake -- that just floored me, and this film is just full of magical little touches, unforced moments of recognition, of brilliance, pain and occasional beauty.

[Go back to our August 2004 initial discussion of Hathaway, when the question was whether she, Julia Stiles, Kirsten Dunst, Hillary Duff, Keira Knightley or someone else was most likely to be the next Julia Roberts-level star. Right now, she's winning.]

There are filmmakers who focus on dysfunction -- I'm thinking of Todd Solondz and Noah Baumbach -- whose goal is to make the viewer uncomfortable, to squirm in the face of all that awfulness. Jonathan Demme's goals are different, his heart is larger and this film is so much more rewarding as a result. Highly recommended.

BRIAN BENBEN SHEDS A TEAR: Ladies and gentlemen, we have two tiers this season: Young David Archuleta's, and everyone else's.

Michael Johns' boot tonight reminds me of Tamyra Gray's in season one -- an utterly solid and competent singer (though, okay, she was better) fallen prematurely by a bad choice in a wide-open genre. It is impossible for me to argue, based on this week alone, that he *wasn't* the worst of the eight singers, but it's weird seeing someone go from "never in the bottom three" to gone without being actively bad -- and yet every eliminated person is someone who had never been threatened before -- i.e., folks being lax because their favorite has never seemed at risk.

David Cook is, quietly, a very happy man tonight. His main competition to make the finals is gone.

AND THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR, THIS COULD BE THE YEAR FOR THE REAL THING: With Ramiele's ouster, this is where I think we are:

Can't win: Kristy Lee

Won't win because there's no magic, but could go in any random week, or could last until final 3 because the competence is there: Syesha, Carly

Can't win if they can't expand beyond the limited range in which they're pretty damn good, and even then probably still won't win, but could be final 2-3: Clifford the Crunchy Muppet, Brooke

Can make it to final 2-3, but aren't going to win unless Young David Archuleta screws up or gets hit with something like Punk Rock week: David C, Michael

Young David Archuleta, the Anointed: Young David Archuleta.

Essentially, as far as the tier system goes, that means that those first five could really go in any order at this point without grave injustice occurring -- none of them have had the kind of sustained excellence that would merit a free pass for any bad weeks which are to come. And Kristy Lee Cook hasn't been that much worse such that she has to go during the next ouster, whether it's during next week's Idols Give Back performances or a double-elimination the following week, though she probably should.

And to David Cook and Michael Johns: you can also screw up badly enough to get eliminated prematurely, which would be unjust but not unsurprising. Ask Tamyra Gray ("New Attitude") or Chris Daughtry (Elvis week).

YDA will be in the finals. He still should win it all.

[Post updated Thursday morning now that the West Coast knows.]

THREE VARIATIONS ON ANN POWERS: The LA Times pop music critic penned a provocative piece on Chikezie's ouster, American Idol and race, in which she bemoans the fact that "Aside from Ruben Studdard, the Velvet Exception who proves the rule, black male singers have a tough time on 'Idol,' hanging out on its bottom tiers," and is troubled by what she describes as "white America's seeming reluctance to universally embrace a strong black male voice, unless it belongs to a rapper selling blaxploitation fantasies to teens."

To which three of us have responses, as part of our ongoing ALOTT5MA Symposium About The Sensitive Subject of Race:

Me: Look, this wasn't Nikki over Tamyra bad, or certainly John Stevens and Jasmine Trias over Jennifer Hudson (and with Fantasia and LaToya joining her in the bottom three) level of bad, but there's no question that Chikezie is more talented than, and performed better on the show than some of the people who are continuing in the competition. And I think it's also undeniable, as Powers writes, that there's a certain profile of singer -- Brandon Rogers, Anwar Robinson, Gedeon McKinney and Rickey Smith (and I'd add Nikko Smith) -- that does not progress in the competition as far as his talent would suggest he should.

The question is why, and I do think race is a factor. If nothing else, I think African-American performers have been more vulnerable to the random "one bad week" ouster than others, and this especially seems to happen earlier in the competition. Do I think voters are racist? I'm not as prepared to say that this season as I have in the past, but I do wonder if stereotypical assumptions about race mean that singers like Chikezie are seen as more "naturally" talented and not as compelling to root for as folks like Jason Castro and Brooke White, who make the effort show more clearly. Or a Taylor Hicks, who carefully and deliberately calibrated his stagecraft and shtick every week to convince people of how hard he was working.

Chikezie wasn't going to win this competition, but he still went earlier than he should have. Part of the impetus behind my whole "tiers" theory is to ameliorate the pain from an ouster like this, but it was still premature. Thank goodness it's only Idol, and not something that matters.

Kim: My dad always likes to say that when you hear hoofbeats, look for horses, not zebras. And yet here’s Ann Powers, spotting one zebra after another. The last black male singer on AI gets booted the week he sings a godawfully boring Luther Vandross song, right after a year in which there was not a single “traditional soul man” represented in the top 20 best-selling albums of the year (never you mind that the #2 album of 2007 came from Akon, a real live black man, because he’s not a traditional soul singer). That can’t be coincidence, right? Right?

Of course it’s not a coincidence. Powers doesn’t think so either, except that instead of concluding that hey, maybe traditional R&B isn’t popular these days, kind of like heavy metal power ballads are going through a bit of a low period at the moment, she makes a Bob Beamonesque leap and concludes that Americans don’t like strong black male voices right now because so many black men are in jail and/or unemployed. (Or maybe I missed the point: is it that all the strong black men who would otherwise be recording great R&B songs are currently incarcerated or standing in unemployment lines?)

Horses, Ann. Look for the horses.

Matt: My total viewing of American Idol is pretty minimal, though I do often wind up listening to the 30 second snippets of performances on iTunes. Having watched the snippets of the performances on iTunes from this week, Chikezie was certainly among the weakest along with Ramiele (and didn't do himself any favors with his song choice). Brooke probably would have been the third member of the bottom three for me because she just completely failed to emotionally connect with the song. It's hard for me to credit "racism" for this particular elimination based on that. Also undermining the argument is that an R&B singer actually has won this competition before over a white guy who played the "non-threatening boy" card as hard as possible.

It strikes me that we need to be careful not to adopt either end of the argument here unquestionably. Are there people who are voting with race as a factor--either consciously or unconsciously? Absolutely. Is "racism" the primary reason why a large number of African-American contestants have been kicked out early? I don't think so. Someone else involved in a major national voting competition that a number of us are following seemed to me to get it pretty well right a couple of weeks ago -- the debate here "reflect[s] the complexities of race in this country that we've never really worked through -- a part of our union that we have yet to perfect. And if we walk away now, if we simply retreat into our respective corners, we will never be able to come together." Let's not reflexively blame racism, and let's not deny that it may play some role here -- let's talk about it with an open mind.

IF I WERE INVISIBLE: I really couldn't make this up--Idol: The Musical!, a show about a group of Clay Aiken fans who've built a shrine to Clay in a barn in their small town, is coming to Off-Broadway. Adam has oft remarked on how Aiken should join Tamyra Gray (currently plating Mimi) in Rent, but maybe this will do.

MEMORIES ARE JUST WHERE YOU LAID THEM: In an all-Idol special edition of Entertainment Weekly, they've again tried to rank the Top Ten All-Time Idol Performances, a feat they last attempted in 2005. Here goes:

1. Carrie Underwood, "Alone" (top ten, sure. #1?)
2. Kelly Clarkson, "Stuff Like That There"
3. Clay Aiken, "Bridge Over Troubled Water" (Ease! Your! Mind! I still prefer That Immigrant Mouse Song)
4. Fantasia Barrino, "Summertime" (either this or the Clarkson is my #1)
5. Jennifer Hudson, "Weekend In New England". (I just cited this for the quintessential Idol Glory Note. Last time, the EW folks listed "Circle of Life" instead. Toss-up.)
6. Chris Daughtry, "Hemorrhage (In My Hands)". (That's how you introduce yourself in the semis.)
7. Melinda Doolittle, "My Funny Valentine". (Ditto. 2007's best performance?)
8. Elliot Yamin, "A Song For You". (Odd. Where's my Constantine? Where's Bo?)
9. Ruben Studdard, "Nights On Broadway". (No, no, no, and not just because I can only think of the Barry Gibb Talk Show when I hear it now. "Superstar".)
10. Katharine McPhee, "Over the Rainbow". (Over "Black Horse and the Cherry Tree"?)

Most egregious omission? No Tamyra Gray, no Jordin Sparks, and I also have a soft spot for Paris Bennett's "Midnight Train To Georgia", which I think exemplifies that which Melinda was missing this season. They've also got a worst list, which I'll blog about later, but I should note that this is on it.

BRING BACK TAMYRA: I've never been a fan of American Idol, but there are interesting questions raised by the announcement that reruns of the first four seasons will arrive in weekend syndication this fall. Now, I'm not quite sure how this will work from a purely logistical standpoint, given that episodes are of varying length, making it difficult to run a consistent weekly schedule. Also, unlike TAR and Survivor, which have been big successes in repeats, isn't there not a whole lot of drama beyond "who will be eliminated?" AI doesn't have personal relationships, interpersonal conflicts, or unique challenges to watch, and you can probably download audio of most performances. Is there any reason to watch?

AND I AM TELLING YOU I AM NOT FORGETTING: EntertainmentWeekly.com has its list today of the Top Ten All-Time American Idol Performances. They seem to have limited themselves to one per competitor, and here goes:

1. Fantasia, "Summertime"
2. Kelly Clarkson, "Stuff Like That There"
3. Bo Bice, "Whipping Post"
4. Jennifer Hudson, "Circle of Life"
5. Ruben Studdard, "Superstar"
6. Tamyra Gray, "A House Is Not A Home"
7. Clay Aiken, "Unchained Melody"
8. John Stevens, "Crocodile Rock" ("brilliant in its awfulness")
9. Constantine Maroulis, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
10. Trenyce, "Proud Mary"

My take: if you want to pick a perfectly awful performance, I'll still go for Corey Clark's "Against All Odds" or Josh Gracin's angry "Pie-Yannah Man".

As for the rest, I prefered Trenyce's "I Have Nothing" to "Proud Mary", Clay's Immigrant Mouse Song to "Unchained Melody", and Connie's "I Think I Love You" to his Queen.

And even sticking within the one-per-singer (otherwise, Ruben's "Kiss And Say Goodbye" and Fantasia's "I Believe" make the cut), I'll trade out Bo and Hudson for Frenchie's "And I Am Tellling You I Am Not Going" from the auditions and Kimberly Caldwell's "Come To My Window". Finally, there's no room for a bad song here, so axe that slot for George Huff's "Lean On Me" from the wildcards.

(You know who I miss from season three? Briana Ramirez-Rial. I thought she had real promise. You know who no one misses? Dunkleman.)

Overall, not a bad list, actually.

ONE SONG, GORY: Tonight's results on American Idol? As big a stunner as Nikki outlasting Tamyra and Josh Gracin eliminating Trenyce, and if it's explicable at all, it's for the same reason as the first one.

The pretty boy front man who wasted opportunity:

How do you write a song
When the chords sound wrong
Though they once sounded right and rare?
When the notes are sour
Where is the power
You once had to ignite the air?

And he could have won the whole competition. Instead, Christmas bells are ringing . . . somewhere else.

edited to add: On the other hand, I've located the people who are voting for Scott:

This show is not about finding the next big superstar. Your favorite contestant probably won't win, and will probably get a record contract anyway if they're [sic] good enough. Besides, TV is supposed to be about the entertainment value, and what's more entertaining than a fish out of water outlasting the big fish and sharks? The producers wanted Scott in the top group so he could fail, but let's give them the monster that they've created. . . . Why bother voting for someone talented when this show can be so much more fun to watch? Scott Savol outlasting Carrie Underwood or Bo Bice? Now that's good TV!

They've got a point.

EVERYBODY'S HIGH ON CONSOLATION: It's time to get serious about American Idol 4. I find that as time goes on, the more my opinions align themselves with Simon's -- I am judging for the competition that he wants to run, for the type of singer he's looking for, and it's impossible to break out of that framework. So, as such:

• Constantine gets it. This is a competition looking for a pop singer who can hit glory notes and oodles of charisma. It's not looking for a "rocker", and even if it were, it's not him. So he does what he does well -- it's cheesy and smarmy, but he knows his niche here, and he exploits it.
• Bo, on the other hand, I still don't get why he's there. The more he tries to do "his thing" with an orchestra, not a rock band behind him, the less authentic it feels. "Freebird" in two minutes? I held up my lighter and requested something else.
• Vonzell is this year's LaToya/Tamyra/Hudson: completely competent, and will hang around for a while, and be eliminated through no fault of her own.
• Carrie resurrected GoatGirl tonight, and it was not pleasant.
• I have nothing good to say about Scott or ThroatBoy. Beyond his moral failings, Scott's also an uncompelling singer with no stage presence. What he did to "She's Gone" tonight, Andrew Jackson did to the Creeks. And Federov would do well on the British version, which goes for asexual teenybopper boys like Will Young, but he's utterly outclassed here.
• Which leaves the enigmas. Nadia has always seemed to me to be way too rehearsed, like she's singing in a pageant with all the overblown, overdetermined stagey gestures. And Anwar, dawg, you do your thing well, but if he's going to overtake the big two, he needs a breakout performance already.

Maybe it's just me, but this season has not seen the blown-away equivalent of Kelly's "Stuff Like That There", Ruben's "Superstar", Clay's version of that immigrant mouse song or Fantasia's "Summertime" -- this season's best remains yet to come. Or am I wrong?

TSATHOGGUA IS PLEASED: While Kelly Clarkson's off selling millions of records and Clay Aiken continues his question to become Liberace for a new era, Broadway has become the home to "American Idol" rejects. First-season loser Tamyra Gray will join the (allegedly jaw-droppingly awful) "Bombay Dreams", which includes the ever-popular song "Shakalaka Baby." Curly-haired moppet and brief possessor of the Eeeeeee! Justin Guarini starred in the most recent workshop of Broadway-bound "Good Vibrations," and while his casting is not confirmed, he may well be making his way to the Great White Way soon in this "musical featuring the songs of the Beach Boys." Rejects Frenchie Davis and Vanessa Olivarez have made their way into "Rent" and the Toronto production of "Hairspray," respectively.

In good news for Guarini, who'll be Tony eligible if he makes it into the show, Anika Noni Rose managed to overcome her appearance in "From Justin To Kelly" and score a Tony win for Best Featured Actress in a musical earlier this year. Maybe Justin will perform similarly. Somehow I doubt it.

AND IF YOU SHOULD FALL, REMEMBER, YOU ALMOST HAD IT ALL: Yeah, Diana kinda had problems during her last song, in the same way that Roseanne Barr once had problems with the National Anthem. It just wasn't there.

Lookit: I've been a Fantasia fan since early on, and she has impressed me time after time, even with some weird genre selections. I thought she did as best as she could with Tamyra's attempt to out-Diane Warren Diane Warren, and infused every song with her own personality and unique style.

The D.I.A.N.A. bot never did it for me. It always felt too rehearsed, too controlled, and I never felt much personality from her. Great voice, but she belongs on Broadway as Belle in Beauty and the Beast, not as America's Next Pop Superstar. That is what we're voting for, right?

I do want to agree with Ann Althouse on one thing: Fantasia's good, but she's no Frenchie Davis. Or Tamyra Gray. But unlike Ruben Studdard, who's just as talented, she brought it every week to the show, and never coasted on charisma. (That said, maybe the answer is to not have judges at all for the final night, and just trust the people to decide.)

This was not the deepest pool of singers we've ever seen. I miss Scooter Girl, Lisa Leuschner and Bree. I wish there had been a more talented group of men this year, as opposed to the novelty acts they advanced to the round of 12. There weren't a lot of people in this pool who were close to the level of previous winners -- it was just a matter of time before Fantasia and someone made it to the finals.

Compare that to America's Next Next Top Model from this winter, in which any of the final six (Camille, April, Mercedes, Sara, Mercedes and Yoanna) could conceivably have won the whole thing, and each of the competitors had to fight for her slot every single week. By that standard, this season of AI was a disappointment.

Truthfully, I don't think of American Idol as "reality" tv. It's just a talent show, and this season, dawg, it was just a'ight. It did its thing, yo, but didn't blow me away.

WHEN DEMOCRACY FAILS: Our Good Friend Charlie Glassenberg often said to me that democracy was best suited for talent shows and beauty pageants, but that you couldn't trust The People for anything beyond that.

After last night's American Idol results show, I'm willing to limit it to beauty pageants. My top-of-the-head list of Worst AI Voting Results Travesties?

5. Vanessa Olivarez as first AI2 bootee.

4. Briana Ramirez-Rial fails to advance from AI3 semifinal group and not invited to wild card show.

3. Josh Gracin survives; Trenyce goes home in AI2.

2. Nikki McKibbin outlasts Tamyra Gray in AI1.

1. Last night, Amy Adams eliminated in AI3 with La Toya London and Jennifer Hudson on chopping block; neither Conan O'Sinatra or Pencil Boy are even in bottom three, despite ghastly performances.

Look out, people: the ClayNation has realized its power to protect dorky white boys, and we all will suffer if they are allowed to prevail.

PUT UP OR SHUT UP DAY: Last year, though it may not have been that hard, I correctly called Clay and Ruben as the two AI2 finalists just two weeks into the season. It's time to make this year's prediction, because I feel it's just as inevitable.

First, the surprising part (maybe): I feel comfortable in predicting that Fantasia and LaToya -- despite both clearly leading the pack right now -- will not both be in the final pairing, and I feel strongly that they won't both even make the final three. Every year on Idol, as I and others have noted, a more talented black woman gets eliminated before a mediocre white singer with a more compelling narrative arc and energized fanbase. (Tamyra went before Nikki; Trenyce before Josh.)

So this year, I'm guessing LaToya gets axed before the Pencil Boy, John Peter Lewis, leaving us with a final three of Lewis, Fantasia Barrino and Mr. Happy, George Huff. For a final two, right now I'm thinking Lewis and Barrino, but I'm going to revisit that prediction in a few weeks.

If you'd like to register alternate predictions, do so now. No prize except the glory bestowed upon you by the rest of us, and the thanks of a grateful nation.

Tonight: Motown Night, and if you miss guest judge Verdine White's glorious appearance from last year, fret not: Ashford and Simpson are judging tonight. Solid!

(As a rock.)

THIS SEASON IS THE GOLDEN CALF: Clearly, something is amiss with American Idol. The talent, it is just not there.

You knew when watching the first season's round of 32 that Justin, Tamyra and Nikki were real talents with strong personalities, and had no idea until "Stuff Like That There" how good Kelly Clarkson was going to be.

Last season, by this point, Frenchie, Ruben Studdard, Clay Aiken, Rickey Smith (Hercules! Hercules!) and Kims Caldwell and Locke had all clearly broken through with both charisma and singing ability, and we were looking forward to the competition that was to follow.

This year? Just two people are at all memorable -- Latoya London, whose "All By Myself" was absolutely transcendent, and Fantasia Barrino with her charming Macy Gray-ish voice -- and even they can't hold a candle to Tamyra Gray's overall talent. (Yet.)

(And no, I'm not upset just because my girl Bree didn't make the wild card.)

So, what's gone wrong? Surely, in a nation of 292+ million, there are more than 64 people capable of being entertaining round-of-32 performers. We haven't exhausted the supply yet, have we?

Well, maybe. Maybe everyone who was really capable of shining in these lame, relative dead genres of music had already come out for the competition. Maybe it's time to broaden the musical context of the show beyond power-ballad and antique pop to include hip-hop and modern rock.

Maybe they need to loosen the eligibility rules, and allow in competitors with more professional experience.

Maybe the judges need to take their lesson from Frenchie's ouster, and realize that a female American Idol doesn't have to conform to a rigid body image to succeed.

And maybe, just maybe, the talent is out there, but the producers and our esteemed panel of judges were so busy looking for the William Hungs of the world for embarrassing audition footage that they just neglected to put in the effort to find the next Kelly Clarkson, or even the next Trenyce.

All I know is that this season is shaping up to be the lamest one yet, and I don't believe I'm alone in my disappointment.

Am I? Are you also disappointed, and do you have a theory as to what's going on this season? Is there a real talent out there I'm just missing?

IT'S ON: Andy Lloyd of the always-excellent Pathetic Earthlings blog challenges my prediction that Clay Aiken will win the American Idol competition "because he's white, and so is the majority of the teenyboppers calling in."

Two ways to illustrate the thesis:

The Early Ousters: Whether Tamyra Gray before Nikki McKibbin, Christina Christian before R.J. Helton, Trenyce before Josh Gracin, or Charles Grigsby and Rickey Smith before Carmen Rasmussen and Kimberly Locke, the AI voting has consistently protected mediocre white singers while eliminating more-talented African Americans. Now, some (like my wife, okay) would argue that McKibbin and Gracin were supported because of their compelling narratives (the ex-stripper/single mom, the Marine dad), not their race, but, c'mon -- how else explain Goat Girl?

The Top Dogs: Neither Kelly Clarkson nor Clay Aiken were ever in jeopardy during the competition, not once falling in the bottom two or three. No matter how mediocre their performances were -- even when Clay sang "Everlasting Love" and enunciated every syllable like he was the official pronouncer for the National Spelling Bee, or sang Billy Vera's "At This Moment" without a shred of the desperation or sadness needed to sell the song. Girls and geeky guys just love that goofy-looking elf. Clay's like the dream camp counselor everyone wanted growing up -- and, indeed, he works at camps for special needs children.

At the same time, non-white front-runners Justin Guarini and Ruben Studdard each had an elimination scare despite singing well during the week in question. Now, look: Ruben's as non-threatening and teddybear-like as they come, but while he's making adult hearts melt, I don't think he connects with kids the way Clay does.

So, I'm predicting Clay will win -- Tuesday performances unseen, and Andy will ride the Ruben 205 Express. Loser buys the next dinner for the four of us -- if it's in California, at Postino, home of some blessed truffled macaroni and cheese -- and if in Pennsylvania, I think it's time to introduce the Lloyds to some authentic Italian cooking.

So, Andy, how can Ruben win this thing?