Wednesday, July 23, 2003

A POST WHICH WILL ONLY BE MEANINGFUL TO THE BASEBALL GEEKS IN THE AUDIENCE, A GROUP WHICH, OF COURSE, INCLUDES ME: Tom Tippett of Diamond Mind thinks that Voros McCracken is wrong. His conclusion, based on 90 years of data:
The bottom line, though, is that I am convinced that pitchers do influence in-play outcomes to a significant degree. There's a reason why Charlie Hough and Jamie Moyer and Phil Niekro and Tom Glavine and Bud Black have had successful careers despite mediocre strikeout rates. There's a reason why the top strikeout pitchers have also suppressed in-play hits at a good rate. Using power or control or deception or a knuckleball, pitchers can keep hitters off balance and induce more than their share of routine grounders, popups, and lazy fly balls.

Here's the full article.

(Quick summary of the debate for the latecomers: Baseball statistician and now-Red-Sox-employee Voros McCracken created a huge amount of buzz two years ago when his research and analysis seemed to demonstrate a completely counterintuitive conclusion -- namely, that baseball pitchers have little reliable ability to prevent hits on balls-in-play, and that their only real measurable, consistent skill was in recording strikeouts and preventing walks and home runs. For more, keep reading here.)

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