A List Of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago

WITH CHAFAFA ON THE SIDE:  In which Kim and I set the stage for American Idol 10, the three-month finals of which begin tonight:

Adam: If this Idol were like the three which preceded it, picking a winner would just involve finding the non-threatening white guy who had room to grow performance-wise and who might have talents in reworking or rearranging songs, and it'd help if he were Southern or, at least, not explicitly Yankee or cosmopolitan in demeanor. Under that standard, I'd just assume that Nashville's Paul McDonald will be your next American Idol, after having been chased by Casey Abrams and Scott McCreery, and we could end the conversation right here.

But this may not be more of the same, and that's because Idol's enduring success depends on its occasionally locating a Next Pop Superstar like Carrie Underwood or Kelly Clarkson -- and that's something the show has not done lately. Not only does the show's credibility depend on it but it also affects the bottom line, given the new partnership with Universal Music Group and Jimmy Iovine throughout the competition. The blood is in the water, with NBC's The Voice and Fox's own X-Factor with Simon Cowell on the horizon, so now more than ever Idol needs to not just keep people watching (and voting) (and buying from iTunes) week after week but also anoint someone with market potential.

So, Kim, does that person exist in this competition? Can the producers and judges change the show enough to steer voters in his or her direction? Or is all of this irrelevant because the voting base isn't going to change, and we should all just calm down and enjoy the ride to McDonaldland?



Kim: I didn’t watch the first season of AI as it unfolded, so I can’t speak to Kelly Clarkson’s trajectory, but I never had the sense during Season 4 that Carrie Underwood was destined to become the phenomenon that she turned out to be. That, combined with the fact that I haven’t paid attention to new pop music since approximately 1994, makes me completely unqualified to opine as to who has a future in the music biz. All I’m good for (if anything) is guessing who America will want to watch on TV week after week.

Thus far this season has been highly Machiavellian. The fact that the top ten was created through a single night of voting and with no egregious voter errors shows just how heavy-handed the editing of the audition, Hollywood, and Vegas rounds was. America voted for the people we were told to vote for. Just to drive the point home, look at this and this. Of the top 12 guys, seven of the eight who made it into the top ten or wild card round were the final seven singers. The girls weren’t quite as preprogrammed, but nonetheless, four of the five who were voted into the top ten were the last four singers of the night. So I am very curious to see what the impact of Jimmy Iovine and Universal Music Group will be – I think the steering of America will remain a theme all season.

On another note, God bless Nigel Lythgoe! If there’s one thing the man can do, it’s bring a show in on time. Did you notice how once the wild card round got going and it was clear that things were getting a little long, Ryan only let one judge speak about each performance? What a relief.

Adam: Yes, all hail Nigel Lythgoe, who was smart enough to pre-tape both last week's and tonight's 12+ singer-fests to get them in on time, and landed the live results show on schedule.

Onto substance: post hoc ergo propter hoc, Ms. Cosmpolitan? Just because it worked out that the later singers were voted through does not prove that (but for the pimp-slotted) that's what they wanted, though we do know historically later slots are generally safer. But it's Idol, so it's safer to believe in conspiracies than in random fate.

So why these finalists, then? There's nothing from the last four ladies who sang that we haven't seen before -- clones of Haley Scarnato, Jasmine Murray, Kelly Pickler and Gina Glocksen, sonically. The final four guys are a bit more idiosyncratic -- is Jacob Lusk a better Anwar Robinson, and Casey Abrams a less shtick-y Taylor Hicks?

Which leads to my basic question: are we just getting the same show again but with different judges, or have you seen any sign yet of a different Idol? And do you want a different Idol?

Kim: I’m not running a regression analysis or anything, but the backweighting does seem kinda non-random.

As for the basic question: after nine seasons, are we really looking for something totally new under the sun? I think that what we want is a show that will consistently entertain us and keep us away from the boredom that stopped me from watching last season right after the Top 9 sang Elvis. I feel a little underinformed about this year’s finalists -- one week of semi-finals isn’t really enough to form an independent view – but my gut is that there could be at least 5 or 6 who keep it interesting for a while.

Adam: What has kept me interested in Idol is the possibility of being impressed -- whether through sheer vocal skills or through personal inventiveness. I'll tell you something we've rarely seen on the stage, though: someone who's more of a total package in terms of presence and presentation. Adam Lambert was light years ahead of anyone before or after, IMHO, and I'd love to see another entertainer like that again. Do any of the women give you hope?

Kim: No. I don’t see this as being a girls’ season. (I turn 40 this year – I believe that relieves me from having to refer to them as “women.”) I haven’t seen anything from the girls that makes me think there’s a superstar among them. There’s something interesting to both Haley Reinhart and Lauren Alaina’s voices – I like the raspy girls, always have. I don’t get the wild fanfare for Pia Toscano last week. Pretty girl, nice voice, but “I’ll Stand By You” certainly wasn’t all that. They’re all fine – some of them will implode over the next week or two, but barring something spectacular, it’s going to be tough for the producers to mold one of these girls into an Idol.

Adam: To me, Lauren Alaina's the clear favorite among the women – country always does well, and she seems to have a personality to boot. I'm feeling a whole lot of pageant and diva archetypes from the rest of the field ("Hero"? Really?), and it's odd – because I thought the whole point of lowering the age requirements and bringing in the Iovine team was to break away from all that.

Among the guys, I stand by what I said in the opening: because the voter pool hasn't changed, I'm assuming non-threatening white rock-ish boys dominate, and the one who grows the most wins. If I'm wrong, I kinda like Stefano. I'm just glad we don't have the sympathy story of Clint Medina make it through, because that'd jut be Danny Gokey 2.0 with a living fiancée.

Kim: I really like both Casey Abrams and Paul McDonald – can't help it. I am most excited to watch what happens with James Durbin, though. Do we really have a metalhead in our midst?

I agree with you that Lauren Alaina is most likely to succeed among the girls – she could be the Alison Iraheta of country music!

Adam: And you know that I am a sucker for all things Irahetan. By the way, what do you think of the judges?

Kim: I am enjoying them, but am a little worried that neither Tyler nor JLo has the ability to deliver anything other than positive messages.

Adam: They haven't gotten in the way, and they seem to enjoy and care about this role.  And then there's a third judge, the one who must have compromising pictures of the Nigels. So I'll call it a Paul-Scott finals, with Paul winning. You?

Kim: I don’t have an opinion yet as to who joins Paul in the final three, actually. Scott seems like too much of a one-trick pony; although if they don’t do theme weeks this season, it may not matter. But I forgot to mention the one thing I feel more strongly than anything else regarding this Top 13: Jacob Lusk makes me want to puncture my eardrums with toothpicks.

Adam: And you would be correct.