Can't win: Kristy LeeEssentially, as far as the tier system goes, that means that those first five could really go in any order at this point without grave injustice occurring -- none of them have had the kind of sustained excellence that would merit a free pass for any bad weeks which are to come. And Kristy Lee Cook hasn't been that much worse such that she has to go during the next ouster, whether it's during next week's Idols Give Back performances or a double-elimination the following week, though she probably should.
Won't win because there's no magic, but could go in any random week, or could last until final 3 because the competence is there: Syesha, Carly
Can't win if they can't expand beyond the limited range in which they're pretty damn good, and even then probably still won't win, but could be final 2-3: Clifford the Crunchy Muppet, Brooke
Can make it to final 2-3, but aren't going to win unless Young David Archuleta screws up or gets hit with something like Punk Rock week: David C, Michael
Young David Archuleta, the Anointed: Young David Archuleta.
And to David Cook and Michael Johns: you can also screw up badly enough to get eliminated prematurely, which would be unjust but not unsurprising. Ask Tamyra Gray ("New Attitude") or Chris Daughtry (Elvis week).
YDA will be in the finals. He still should win it all.
[Post updated Thursday morning now that the West Coast knows.]
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