In that regard, the most telling part of last night's results was not that Karen Rodriguez was eliminated, but that Paul McDonald wasn't even in the bottom three for that ragged, rambling take on "I Guess That's Why They Call It The Blues" which no one liked. Until further notice, Idol remains the province of sexually non-threatening older white guys who sing "rock," and this analysis reflects that. So:
Perfectly Adequate, But Not At All Contemporary Singers: Ashthon and Karen were just the start of a mass run of female eliminations; Thia and Haley are not long for this competition either, nor is Naima unless she has a few more Umbrellas in her stand. She's the one contestant who can break out of this group. Stefano's in the same boat for the guys -- I did like his take on Bruno Mars's "Just The Way You Are," but without more like that he seems more like Idol pre-Daughtry than Idol post-, which means a pre-Passover exit.
They Do Their Thing Better, But That Thing Is Not Going To Win: James Durbin and Pia Toscano are clearly a cut above those four in terms of consistency and charisma, but I don't sense that's going to be enough to break through. Durbin because of genre, and Pia because thus far it's been all pageant and no originality or showmanship from her, which you need to win on this show unless ... well, that's category #4.
The Jacob Huff/Melinda Doolittle/LaToya London/Kimberly Locke/Big Mike Lynche Memorial Slot For A Clearly Talented African American Singer Who Will Make It To The Final 3-5, But Who Cannot Win: Jacob Lusk. If he doesn't make it that far, it'll be because his performance style is so affected that it starts to turn people off. In essence, he's in the same boat as the two above, only Idol's voters have such a demonstrated history with this type of singer that it bears separate mention.
The Only Woman Who Can Win: Lauren Alaina, because unlike Pia she sings country, and if there are three things we know about Idol, one of them is that the only exception to the second thing is a white woman who sings country music. Lauren fills the slots that Idol purports to be seeking this year -- she's younger, she's marketable, and she's a she, unlike the last three winners. I will not be at all surprised to see her in the final two, nor as the winner.
Your Presumptive Winners: Paul, Casey or Scotty, obviously. Scotty wins if country's just an unstoppable force in the competition (and once or twice, he crosses over into another genre); Paul if he pulls a Lee/Kris/David and starts rearranging stuff more and grows in stage presence; and Casey if he doesn't.
