Friday, March 12, 2010

AARON STAMPLER'S BLUES: So what did I think about the Idol eliminations last night of Alex Lambert, Todrick Hall, Katelyn Epperly and Lilly Allen Scott?

I mean, obviously it was bullshit -- four other contestants could have more credibly been eliminated (Aaron, Tim, Paige and Lacey) -- but most bullshit Idol decisions are less confounding than this one was because none of the eliminated four were overtly bad this week, instead ranging from misguided (Todrick) to unmemorable (Katelyn, Lilly) to outright good (Alex). And it wasn't a whitey thing either -- though they eliminated the wrong minority this time.

[Incidentally -- Alan, Dan and I prehashed the expected elimination of Andrew Garcia and tried to determine who the previous biggest flameout during the semis was compared to hype/expectations coming out of Hollywood, and settled on Sundance Head and Asia'h Epperson with neither even being close to what an Garcia ouster would have represented.]

So what happened here? It's not enough to say that "it's better to be actively bad than unmemorable" -- because the former encourages defenders' voting while the latter may not -- though it might apply to the ladies more than the men. I think a more crucial factor is that the judges' contradictory advice -- be more original! find out who you are! be as good as you were when you did "Straight Up," only not exactly like that again! -- not only confused the contestants but the voting public as well.

Remember what the big complaint was about 2009: overmanipulation by the judges to obtain the final 13 they wanted. That, though, was based on a semis in which each semifinalist only had one chance to be voted on by the public, and thus profile packages in the audition rounds carried more weight. But this was the third week in which everyone performed, so that wasn't the likely problem.

But undermanipulation can be just as much of a concern. Simon, in particular, has demonstrated in the past a power to preserve folks whom he knows are good enough to remain in the competition, even when they've had subpar weeks. The general incoherence of the panel and -- I hate to acknowledge this -- the absence of a Paula Abdul as a guaranteed supportive voice may have removed the balm that these performers needed.

All of which is to say that I have no answer here yet, but maybe we can come to some incompletely theorized agreement by the end of this. At a minimum, let's go back to Theory #1 -- The Tiers: "There are two groups of contestants in the Final 24 -- Those Who Can't Win The Whole Thing, and Those Who Can. As long as they get rid of the first group before starting to pick at the second, it's not worth stressing over the order of elimination."

Could any of these four have won? Honestly, I was all set to declare Alex Lambert as my sleeper candidate for 2010 -- he had the talent, but just needed to grow as a performer. So, yes, that was particularly irksome. But the other three weren't going to win this -- not even Lilly, given Crystal Bowersox's superior version of the same thing.

We've got our twelve. Let's see how badly America screws this up until Crystal or Siobhan is eliminated in the final three. Our predictions: next week, with The Music of the Rolling Stones.

[Sorry about the delay in posting this. Blame Moby. For real.]

20 comments:

  1. MaryL9:36 PM

    I was wondering at the big coincidence that there was a Lilly Allen on AI this year, but I think you meant LillyScott.

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  2. Paul Tabachneck2:59 AM

    I'm glad you at least agree with me that Crystal and Siobhan should be the final two, Adam.  I hate that Siobhan would motivate me to actually vote if I thought she were ever in trouble.

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  3. girard318:01 AM

    I really don't think it's fixed, because I don't see what good it does anyone to have Tim Urban perform again, especially the producers.

    I do think your theory holds some weight. The panel is too big and too wordy and too conflicted.

    What did you expect Andrew Garcia to do this week after having been told two weeks in a row that "Straight Up" is the shizzle? I'd have been stunned if he didn't rework a female dance record. Hell, after being rewarded with a stay, that's all he may do the rest of the comp. Look for him to turn "Miss You" into a hum and strummer this week.

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  4. I do think that the tiers concept was violated this week. I don't think of the tiers solely as "Who could win" or "Who should make top two," but as "Who should hit certain benchmarks?"

    To me, there are at least two people who should have made the next couple of tiers---Alex Lambert and Lilly Scott should have at least made top 12 (live shows) and likely top ten (the tour).  And I'd say that Katelyn should have made at least the top 12.

    The What Not to Sing numbers are interesting.  I played around with the numbers and did three things:  (1) Like their Camp-Not-to-Sing, drop the bottom two each week to get to a final six each week for each gender, (2) just look at the week 3 numbers, and drop the bottom two from each gender, and (3) take the totals for the whole semifinals and take the top 6 women and men.

    Using the first method, you end up keeping Lilly, Katelyn, Todrick, and Alex---all four people tossed this week.  You would also probably keep one other girl (probably Michelle, maybe Katie).

    Using the second method, you end up keeping Lilly, Katelyn, Todrick, and Alex.

    Using the third method, you end up keeping Lilly, Katelyn, and Alex (but not Todrick).

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  5. I can't believe Paige and Lacey are still in this competition. Especially Paige. I'm bummed to lose Lilly this early, as I would have liked her to at least make the tour. Still, I think I may be almost more disappointed to see Katelyn go home. While she wasn't so great this week, she has been pretty good in the past and I was starting to wonder if she might have been a bit of a dark horse in this thing. Guess not. It's a shame, as she's another I'd have liked to see on the tour. 

    If I ranked them at this point, I'd toss Paige, Lacey, Aaron and Tim next. Then Katie and Andrew - I like both of them, but so far they haven't lived up to their performances in Hollywood. That would leave my top six as Crystal, Casey, Didi, Lee, Siobhan, and Big Mike. And I'm not yet completely sold on Siobhan or Big Mike. 

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  6. Genevieve5:11 PM

    Same, except that I'm not completely sold on Casey, and Siobhan's in my top two or three.

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  7. FFred App10:46 AM

    Alex is the kind of contestant that AI should be looking for -- and, at one time, was. He's got a good voice, but he's raw, a diamond in the rough. But voters expect much more polish from the contestants these days, and so Alex never had a chance. Which is a shame.

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  8. Re tiers, yes, we do need to do now the "can win this," "should stick around for awhile" and "doesn't belong here" breakdown.  But since there's always going to be the "doesn't belong here" folks in the final 12, I can only expend so much energy in doing that breakdown now.

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  9. Out of this top 12, I'm a bit hard pressed as to which ones to put in my top 6.  I'd say Crystal, Siobhan, and Didi (assuming no Brooke-White-esque breakdown) on the girls' side.  The only guy that I feel strongly should make top 6 at this point is Big Mike.  For the last two spots in the top 6, I guess I'd be choosing between Casey, Lee, and Andrew---all of whom have some upsides and downsides to them in my book. 

    I actually kind of liked Paige her first couple of weeks, certainly more than Lacey or Paige, so if one of the remaining five contestants made the top 6, I would prefer it to be her, despite her trashing Smile last week.  Lacey's range is so small that it's actually kind of hilarious.  While I relatively enjoyed her version of The Story, the only way she managed it was by completely declawing the song.  And I'm tired of robotic children on this show, which means that I don't want Katie to make it to top 6.  Ditto for Aaron, whose nasal voice also annoys me.  And I think that we all know that Tim is over his head. 

    So, I guess that I've rambled myself into a top 8:  Drop Aaron, Tim, Lacey, and Katie in the first four rounds (in whatever order, but I guess that I'd prefer it if Aaron wandered away first).

    ReplyDelete
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