CAPTAIN 3000: As Joe Sheehan tweeted, "It's usually not about the narrative. Today, my friends, it is ALL about the narrative. What a story." Congratulations, Derek Jeter.
Career counting stats. Bah. When Jeter gets into the Hall, and even I, anti-Jeterian that I am, admit that he should get there (not inner circle, but at least safely enough), half the people who make his case will use all the wrong arguments. 3000, all those Gold Gloves, leadership, True Yankee. I think at some point I'm going to have to come to grips with the fact that my dislike of Jeter has nothing to do with him and everything to do with the way that, because of an accident of drafting and geography and chronology, he has become the respository for more drivel -- what Sheehan calls the "narrative" -- than any other player I can recall.
How is 3,000 career hits not a good argument to get someone in the Hall? It's round-number bias but a very strong accomplishment, especially since he did it still in his mid-30s.
Where you are going to see some bad arguments is his post-season numbers. In most cases, post-season numbers aren't big enough to add anything to the statistitical case, but I think this is generally ok. A solid post-season record, given the stakes invovled, probably should count for someone who's marginally out. (That we still talk about Jack Morris's world series pitching 20 years later should add to the case for induction, but I've never felt he was strong enough otherwise to get a vote over other candidates.)
Derek Jeter, however, has 679 post-season plate appearances, which is about a season, give or take, and his hitting is slightly worse than his career averages. Admittedly, he's facing better pitching in the playoffs, but given the sheer number of times Jeter has been in the playoffs, it doesn't change his statistical case all that much. Adjusting these figures to his career average plate appearances, had slighly more strike outs, walks, and home runs, to go along with fewer hits and RBI, but nothing especially outside the standard year to year deviation.
And other than the one fielding play -- and you shouldn't get that much credit for almost throwing out Jeremy Giambi, who was totally safe -- he hasn't had that many "memorable" post-season plays.
First, like you said, it's round number bias. I don't know who decided that that 3000 is important but 2900 or 2600 or 3100 aren't as much.
Second, and this is my main point, I hate career counting stats. Jeter now has 3000 hits. After the 2009 season, he had about 2750 hits. Why should two years of below-average offense and bad defense improve Jeter's case just because they put him over the 3000-hit mark?
My approach has always been to look at how good and how long the peak was. If somebody had a ten-year peak of true awesomeness, I don't really care if he retired or eked out another half-decade of mediocrity or took five or six years to reach his peak performance. Jeter's HOF case doesn't and shouldn't depend on how he played in 2010, 2011, or what I'm guessing is going to be a pretty awful and expensive 2012-2013. Jeter made his bones in the late 1990s and throughout the 2000s and the sub-HOF seasons he's having now shouldn't have any bearing on that.
Career counting stats. Bah. When Jeter gets into the Hall, and even I, anti-Jeterian that I am, admit that he should get there (not inner circle, but at least safely enough), half the people who make his case will use all the wrong arguments. 3000, all those Gold Gloves, leadership, True Yankee. I think at some point I'm going to have to come to grips with the fact that my dislike of Jeter has nothing to do with him and everything to do with the way that, because of an accident of drafting and geography and chronology, he has become the respository for more drivel -- what Sheehan calls the "narrative" -- than any other player I can recall.
ReplyDeleteHow is 3,000 career hits not a good argument to get someone in the Hall? It's round-number bias but a very strong accomplishment, especially since he did it still in his mid-30s.
ReplyDeleteWhere you are going to see some bad arguments is his post-season numbers. In most cases, post-season numbers aren't big enough to add anything to the statistitical case, but I think this is generally ok. A solid post-season record, given the stakes invovled, probably should count for someone who's marginally out. (That we still talk about Jack Morris's world series pitching 20 years later should add to the case for induction, but I've never felt he was strong enough otherwise to get a vote over other candidates.)
Derek Jeter, however, has 679 post-season plate appearances, which is about a season, give or take, and his hitting is slightly worse than his career averages. Admittedly, he's facing better pitching in the playoffs, but given the sheer number of times Jeter has been in the playoffs, it doesn't change his statistical case all that much. Adjusting these figures to his career average plate appearances, had slighly more strike outs, walks, and home runs, to go along with fewer hits and RBI, but nothing especially outside the standard year to year deviation.
And other than the one fielding play -- and you shouldn't get that much credit for almost throwing out Jeremy Giambi, who was totally safe -- he hasn't had that many "memorable" post-season plays.
First, like you said, it's round number bias. I don't know who decided that that 3000 is important but 2900 or 2600 or 3100 aren't as much.
ReplyDeleteSecond, and this is my main point, I hate career counting stats. Jeter now has 3000 hits. After the 2009 season, he had about 2750 hits. Why should two years of below-average offense and bad defense improve Jeter's case just because they put him over the 3000-hit mark?
My approach has always been to look at how good and how long the peak was. If somebody had a ten-year peak of true awesomeness, I don't really care if he retired or eked out another half-decade of mediocrity or took five or six years to reach his peak performance. Jeter's HOF case doesn't and shouldn't depend on how he played in 2010, 2011, or what I'm guessing is going to be a pretty awful and expensive 2012-2013. Jeter made his bones in the late 1990s and throughout the 2000s and the sub-HOF seasons he's having now shouldn't have any bearing on that.