IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE: The ALOTT5MA fantasy football auction draft was last night, the first auction for many in the league. Matthew Berry's right: once you do it once, you understand.
For those wondering: must start Q, 2R, 3W, T, K, D. Alex beat me in the finals last year, one we both reached despite going 7-6 and 6-6-1 in the regular season.
Order doesn't matter, the value does. Cutler went for $6, Favre for $5. We can nominate players in whatever order we want -- some kept nominating studs early; I and at least one other owner were nominating TEs and Ks early to let others bid them up irrationally and drain resources.
It's at this point of the year that I always regret not participating. But then I remember how much less I enjoy watching football when I'm rooting for players, instead of teams, and I feel a little bit better.
My pick is for the Tri-State Area Footballinators. Best name (P&F FTW), best player (AP), and I have faith in Brees. Although, I'm surprised at the price premium for him over Manning, and especially over Brady.
Yes, I'm regretting not participating too in any of the various leagues I could have joined. Urgh. I just remind myself that I truly don't have the kind of time that I invariably invest.
This was a strategy I was planning on using in my upcoming draft. Unless there are no-shows, then I have a whole list of "punish the autopicker" nominations (hello, Sidney Rice).
Brees wasn't even the most expensive QB in the draft: Rogers went for $2 more. Which seems awfully optimistic to me, but then I way overspent on RBs. I took a while to catch on to both the ideal auction strategy and the wonky way that the ESPN page decided to treat attempts to click on the bid button.
After he provided most of my team's value last year, I don't think it was a bad choice to spend big on Brees. Looking through the rosters, it looks like both the Sham Wows and Footballinators had a good strategy -- commit big to a top RB and top QB.
Can I make a very early suggestion that we switch to auction format for ALOTT5MA baseball next season? I feel pretty secure in noting that having the 16th pick in a 16 team snake draft totally sucks.
I think we also need to have a broad conversation as to whether 16 teams was too many for one league. I was okay with it, but I wonder if it left teams in the lower half feeling disengaged too early. (Plus, the difficulty level in terms of what FAs were available.)
As the person currently in 16th place, I'd say it might be too big. Not so much for the disengagement (I've still been trying to manage my roster, no matter the futilitily), but when I was hit with a string of injuries early in the season, the FA auction availability was definitely a challenge.
My strategy, generally, was to go for two sure things at premium prices (of which I only secured one) and then snatch up whatever values I could find. I paid $61 for Andre Johnson because he's my fantasy football binky, but then didn't see another elite player at a price I really liked untill Matt Schaub's value plateaued at $25. For $35 less than Aaron Rodgers, $33 less than Brees, $21 less than Peyton Manning, and $10 less than Brady, I'll take it.
What I didn't do well was grab safe running backs, but Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Brown at $23 and $18 seemed like decent values, and I got DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker at about market value ($29, $14, respectively).
My worst buy? Jermichael Finley for $16. Way overpaided for a talented but unproven tight end, but the rest of the options available were not pretty.
I'm with you Lou. I think a year of fantasy football might really help me pay more attention to the league, instead of my narrow (and hopeless) focus on the 49ers, but I hate watching football with folks who are all of a sudden rooting against the team because they want the other guy to get a field goal from more than 40 yards out or something.
This is only my second year playing FF, and I did no research (but didn't complain about it in chat, so I didn't get fined.)
I did want a top-level QB, and either an RB or WR, then fill in the rest with mid-level players. I also wanted on of the top 2-3 defenses. Even though actually getting points from one can be capricious, it looked to me like there's a huge dropoff in production between the top batch and everyone else, so $5 didn't seem unreasonable to me. I just don't know enough to make my bench players worth more than picking someone up off of the waiver wire, so I didn't mind only having $1-2 for most of them. I did however, make the classic mistake of choosing a reserve TE with the same bye week as my starter (Visanthe Siancoe, who I really chose just because he's so photogenic.)
After I spent big on my first two players, I figured that I wasn't bidding on anyone for a while, so I nominated big names hoping to create bidding wars while folks were still feeling flush.
There also may be something to be said for adding a second DL spot in a 16-team league -- when you are hit by a barrage of injuries to big contributors early, as Maggie and several others were, it stinks to have to drop someone useful just to keep a top player on your bench through something more than a 15-day DL trip.
Having said all that, I was pleased to see more trading this year. Notwithstanding the fact that I was involved in 83.33% of those trades.
If we go auction, it's definitely too big - you're looking at a four-hour draft unless you shrink time limits, and recalling what the last few rounds of the snake draft were like (not that I regret my Buster Posey autopick), I foresee chaos. If we stay with the same size and format, consider expanding the playoffs, and I only partially say that because I'm going to just miss them this year.
Some questions for the group: If you used projections to rank your players, where did you get those projections? I'd like to get some ideas as to what sites have good projections (preferably in a downloadable format, and preferably free - I like to win, but I'm not in any money leagues, so I'm not going to buy KUBIAK, for example).
Did any of you generate your own auction values? If so, did you consider the marginal value of a point to be constant? I'm playing with a spreadsheet that generates auction values, but the values I get for the top 10% or so of players are low enough that I've got no chance to get any of them if I stick to that budget. This leads me to wonder if the marginal value of an extra point is higher for the top players. For example, if Adrian Peterson is exactly twice as "valuable" (based on whatever metric you're using) as Beanie Wells, Peterson's price should actually be more than twice that of Wells, since you'd have to fill up an extra roster slot to make up for the production that AP gives you.
Glad someone likes my team. Didn't realize I was defending champ, so yeah for me. Still pissed I got stuck with Kolb at $14. That extra cash could have gone a long way on the WR market.
<span>I used KUBIAK, and I am in a big-money league. I think the key is setting pricing compared to replacement-player value. I wonder also if there's a way to work in player reliability into those standards -- both as a week-to-week and year-to-year matter. I know what Hines Ward and Donald Driver will give me; other players with similar totals in 2009 carry much greater risk.</span>
The 16 team league is definitely too big. Any injuries and you don't have many options for replacing them in the auction.
Perhaps the bottom few teams (which does include me) should be relegated to AAA next year to fight for winning back a berth in the big alott5ma league in 2012.
ESPN.com provided a cheat sheet with projected auction values, but it was designed for a 10-team league (our league has 12 teams). On the draft site itself, it also listed projected values for each player. And in this case, the values were a little higher than they were on the cheat sheet for a 10-team league.
How many requests did you get to join the league this season? Were there enough that we conceivably would have room for two 10-team or 12-team leagues? If so, that does seem like a pretty good idea.
I stopped once we hit four new people. I do think it's an intriguing enough concept that we may be able to attract more people. So it'd be ALOTT5MA Premier League Baseball and ... ?
For those wondering: must start Q, 2R, 3W, T, K, D. Alex beat me in the finals last year, one we both reached despite going 7-6 and 6-6-1 in the regular season.
ReplyDeleteAnd Jay Cutler is drafted below a 50 year old quarterback with a bad ankle. Actually, that sounds about right.
ReplyDelete/not a bitter Bears fan at all.
Order doesn't matter, the value does. Cutler went for $6, Favre for $5. We can nominate players in whatever order we want -- some kept nominating studs early; I and at least one other owner were nominating TEs and Ks early to let others bid them up irrationally and drain resources.
ReplyDeleteIt's at this point of the year that I always regret not participating. But then I remember how much less I enjoy watching football when I'm rooting for players, instead of teams, and I feel a little bit better.
ReplyDeleteMy pick is for the Tri-State Area Footballinators. Best name (P&F FTW), best player (AP), and I have faith in Brees. Although, I'm surprised at the price premium for him over Manning, and especially over Brady.
My strategy (which didn't necessarily work) was to nominate "studs" that I didn't really want, in the hopes that others would bid them up...
ReplyDeleteFirst round, first QB nominated ... folks got excited.
ReplyDeleteAnd that was a very smart strategy by Adam. I didn't quite catch on to how to best work the auction system until I'd spent over 3/4 my money.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm regretting not participating too in any of the various leagues I could have joined. Urgh. I just remind myself that I truly don't have the kind of time that I invariably invest.
ReplyDeleteDon't destroy my bitterness, Adam! (No, I totally understand all that; I just felt like venting about how awful this Bears season is going to be.)
ReplyDeleteThis was a strategy I was planning on using in my upcoming draft.
ReplyDeleteUnless there are no-shows, then I have a whole list of "punish the autopicker" nominations (hello, Sidney Rice).
Brees wasn't even the most expensive QB in the draft: Rogers went for $2 more. Which seems awfully optimistic to me, but then I way overspent on RBs. I took a while to catch on to both the ideal auction strategy and the wonky way that the ESPN page decided to treat attempts to click on the bid button.
ReplyDeleteAfter he provided most of my team's value last year, I don't think it was a bad choice to spend big on Brees. Looking through the rosters, it looks like both the Sham Wows and Footballinators had a good strategy -- commit big to a top RB and top QB.
Last person to pick a player, one of the first to run out of money. Probably not the wisest auction strategy.
ReplyDeleteCan I make a very early suggestion that we switch to auction format for ALOTT5MA baseball next season? I feel pretty secure in noting that having the 16th pick in a 16 team snake draft totally sucks.
ReplyDeleteI think we also need to have a broad conversation as to whether 16 teams was too many for one league. I was okay with it, but I wonder if it left teams in the lower half feeling disengaged too early. (Plus, the difficulty level in terms of what FAs were available.)
ReplyDeleteAs the person currently in 16th place, I'd say it might be too big. Not so much for the disengagement (I've still been trying to manage my roster, no matter the futilitily), but when I was hit with a string of injuries early in the season, the FA auction availability was definitely a challenge.
ReplyDeleteMy strategy, generally, was to go for two sure things at premium prices (of which I only secured one) and then snatch up whatever values I could find. I paid $61 for Andre Johnson because he's my fantasy football binky, but then didn't see another elite player at a price I really liked untill Matt Schaub's value plateaued at $25. For $35 less than Aaron Rodgers, $33 less than Brees, $21 less than Peyton Manning, and $10 less than Brady, I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteWhat I didn't do well was grab safe running backs, but Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Brown at $23 and $18 seemed like decent values, and I got DeSean Jackson and Wes Welker at about market value ($29, $14, respectively).
My worst buy? Jermichael Finley for $16. Way overpaided for a talented but unproven tight end, but the rest of the options available were not pretty.
I'm with you Lou. I think a year of fantasy football might really help me pay more attention to the league, instead of my narrow (and hopeless) focus on the 49ers, but I hate watching football with folks who are all of a sudden rooting against the team because they want the other guy to get a field goal from more than 40 yards out or something.
ReplyDeleteThis is only my second year playing FF, and I did no research (but didn't complain about it in chat, so I didn't get fined.)
ReplyDeleteI did want a top-level QB, and either an RB or WR, then fill in the rest with mid-level players. I also wanted on of the top 2-3 defenses. Even though actually getting points from one can be capricious, it looked to me like there's a huge dropoff in production between the top batch and everyone else, so $5 didn't seem unreasonable to me. I just don't know enough to make my bench players worth more than picking someone up off of the waiver wire, so I didn't mind only having $1-2 for most of them. I did however, make the classic mistake of choosing a reserve TE with the same bye week as my starter (Visanthe Siancoe, who I really chose just because he's so photogenic.)
After I spent big on my first two players, I figured that I wasn't bidding on anyone for a while, so I nominated big names hoping to create bidding wars while folks were still feeling flush.
There also may be something to be said for adding a second DL spot in a 16-team league -- when you are hit by a barrage of injuries to big contributors early, as Maggie and several others were, it stinks to have to drop someone useful just to keep a top player on your bench through something more than a 15-day DL trip.
ReplyDeleteHaving said all that, I was pleased to see more trading this year. Notwithstanding the fact that I was involved in 83.33% of those trades.
If we go auction, it's definitely too big - you're looking at a four-hour draft unless you shrink time limits, and recalling what the last few rounds of the snake draft were like (not that I regret my Buster Posey autopick), I foresee chaos.
ReplyDeleteIf we stay with the same size and format, consider expanding the playoffs, and I only partially say that because I'm going to just miss them this year.
Some questions for the group:
ReplyDeleteIf you used projections to rank your players, where did you get those projections? I'd like to get some ideas as to what sites have good projections (preferably in a downloadable format, and preferably free - I like to win, but I'm not in any money leagues, so I'm not going to buy KUBIAK, for example).
Did any of you generate your own auction values? If so, did you consider the marginal value of a point to be constant?
I'm playing with a spreadsheet that generates auction values, but the values I get for the top 10% or so of players are low enough that I've got no chance to get any of them if I stick to that budget. This leads me to wonder if the marginal value of an extra point is higher for the top players. For example, if Adrian Peterson is exactly twice as "valuable" (based on whatever metric you're using) as Beanie Wells, Peterson's price should actually be more than twice that of Wells, since you'd have to fill up an extra roster slot to make up for the production that AP gives you.
Is it this league or your other one or your other other one that is the OTHER LEAGUE THAT YOU CARE MORE ABOUT?
ReplyDeleteGlad someone likes my team. Didn't realize I was defending champ, so yeah for me. Still pissed I got stuck with Kolb at $14. That extra cash could have gone a long way on the WR market.
ReplyDelete<span>I used KUBIAK, and I am in a big-money league. I think the key is setting pricing compared to replacement-player value. I wonder also if there's a way to work in player reliability into those standards -- both as a week-to-week and year-to-year matter. I know what Hines Ward and Donald Driver will give me; other players with similar totals in 2009 carry much greater risk.</span>
ReplyDeleteYou were just trying to bid him higher for me, IIRC. I'm fine with Cutler/Cassel for a combined $7 instead.
ReplyDeleteThe 16 team league is definitely too big. Any injuries and you don't have many options for replacing them in the auction.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the bottom few teams (which does include me) should be relegated to AAA next year to fight for winning back a berth in the big alott5ma league in 2012.
Hmm. Relegate the bottom 4-6, create a new second league of size equal to the first (10-12 teams), and swap four teams every subsequent year?
ReplyDeleteThat actually sounds like a good and workable idea.
ReplyDeleteESPN.com provided a cheat sheet with projected auction values, but it was designed for a 10-team league (our league has 12 teams). On the draft site itself, it also listed projected values for each player. And in this case, the values were a little higher than they were on the cheat sheet for a 10-team league.
ReplyDeleteHow many requests did you get to join the league this season? Were there enough that we conceivably would have room for two 10-team or 12-team leagues? If so, that does seem like a pretty good idea.
ReplyDeleteI stopped once we hit four new people. I do think it's an intriguing enough concept that we may be able to attract more people. So it'd be ALOTT5MA Premier League Baseball and ... ?
ReplyDeleteALOTT5MAAA?
ReplyDelete